宝城期货动力煤早报-20251202

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The downstream's wait - and - see sentiment is increasing, and port coal prices continue to decline. In December, the supply and demand of thermal coal are expected to be balanced overall, with output falling year - on - year, stable imports, and seasonally stronger demand. The price of 5500K coal is expected to oscillate strongly above 800 yuan, supported by the downstream terminal's restocking demand during the peak season [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Time cycle definitions: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For thermal coal spot, short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", with the core logic being that downstream wait - and - see sentiment is increasing and port coal prices continue to decline [1] Main Variety Price Quotes Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the intraday and medium - term reference view is "oscillation". In late November, as the restocking demand of terminal enterprises was fulfilled, domestic coal prices started to stabilize and decline. On the supply side, the production bases in November and December 2024 were relatively high, and the weekly production data of Mysteel's thermal coal in the first two weeks of November did not improve significantly compared with October. It is expected that the year - end thermal coal production will maintain a negative growth pattern. On the demand side, as December approaches, the southern regions of China will gradually enter the peak winter heating season, driving up the coal consumption of coastal power plants, which is expected to support coal prices. Overall, in December, the supply and demand of thermal coal are expected to be balanced, with output falling year - on - year, stable imports, and seasonally stronger demand [4]