宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年12月2日）-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for both coking coal and coke is a trading range approach. For coking coal, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is upward. For coke, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is slightly bullish [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Price Movement: Coking coal futures have been in a correction since November but rebounded at the lower edge of the previous trading range. The subsequent focus is on coal mine production [5]. - Driving Logic: The demand side of coking coal has no obvious differences, and the supply side is the core factor driving the market. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season has reduced the market's expectation of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry. The coking coal production has not been affected by the central safety production inspection, and the import volume has accelerated, weakening the supply - side logic. However, due to the December Politburo economic meeting and the expected year - end coal mine production cut, there is resistance to further decline [5]. Coke (J) - Production and Inventory: As of the week ending November 28, the total daily output of coke from all - sample coking plants and steel mills was 110.08 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.19 million tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline by 2.6 percentage points to 35.06%. The overall coke inventory increased this week, with inventories accumulating in independent coking plants and steel mills, and the total industrial chain inventory reached 884.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.05 million tons [6]. - Driving Logic: In December, there is still uncertainty on the coking coal supply side, so there is resistance to further decline in coke futures. The main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the trading range, and the subsequent focus is on the actual production of coal mines [6].