国泰君安期货：原：低位震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Low-level oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The log market is currently in a state of low-level oscillation, with various price indicators and trading volumes showing different trends [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Contracts: The 2601 contract's closing price increased by 0.2% daily and 0.3% weekly, while its trading volume decreased by 38.5% daily and 28% weekly, and its open interest decreased by 1.6% daily and 1% weekly. The 2603 contract's closing price rose by 0.3% daily and remained unchanged weekly, with trading volume down 46% daily and 35% weekly, and open interest up 3.8% daily and 3% weekly. The 2605 contract's closing price also increased by 0.3% daily and was flat weekly, trading volume decreased by 7.4% daily and 32% weekly, and open interest rose by 3.4% daily and 7% weekly [2] - Spot-Futures Spreads: The spreads between spot and 2601, 2603 contracts increased by 10% and 9.4% daily, and 14% and 7% weekly respectively [2] - Inter-Contract Spreads: The spreads between 2601 - 2603, 2601 - 2605, 2603 - 2605 contracts showed certain changes [2] - Spot Market: Most log and wood product prices in the spot market remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market decreased by 1.4%, and the price of P30 (knot - free wood) in the Shandong market decreased by 4.9% [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing industry's business climate [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]