20251202申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251202
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-12-02 01:39

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be bullish [2] - Zinc: Likely to trade in a range [2] 2. Core Views - Copper: Night trading saw copper prices close higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, with smelting profit at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow strongly. Grid investment shows positive growth, while power source investment slows; auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate sector remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night trading saw zinc prices close higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate sector remains weak. Overall, the difference in zinc supply and demand is not significant, and prices are likely to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Other Key Data | Commodity | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 89,210 | 50 | 11,233 | 69.10 | 159,425 | 2,250 | | Aluminum | 21,600 | - 60 | 2,888 | - 27.51 | 539,050 | - 2,000 | | Zinc | 22,385 | 65 | 3,091 | 268.39 | 51,750 | 950 | | Nickel | 116,730 | - 3,020 | 14,875 | - 201.94 | 254,760 | - 690 | | Lead | 17,055 | - 55 | 2,000 | - 41.63 | 263,175 | - 1,000 | | Tin | 304,060 | 1,110 | 39,240 | 150.00 | 3,160 | 35 | [2]