原油：空单继续持有，关注地缘扰动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short positions in crude oil should be held, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose by $0.77 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%, to $59.32 per barrel. ICE Brent futures 02 contract rose by $0.79 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.27%, to $63.17 per barrel. SC2601 crude oil futures closed up by 5 yuan per barrel, a gain of 1.11%, to 455.90 yuan per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are deeply closed. US domestic crude oil has an overwhelming cost advantage over imported Middle - Eastern light crude oil, strongly suppressing the import demand for such crude oil. For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities. The arbitrage window for Colombian heavy crude Vasconia is slightly open (-$1.94), and the Mexican Maya crude oil arbitrage window is close to balance (-$1.16) [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arbitrage opportunities in this region are differentiated. North Sea Forties, Algerian Saharan Blend, and Russian Urals have economic viability. Notably, the high arbitrage value of Urals crude oil (+$15.60) reflects the large price discount due to geopolitical factors, driving a large amount of Russian crude oil to flow into this region [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic light crude oil arbitrage window is slightly open. The arbitrage windows of WTI MEH (+$0.56), Eagle Ford (+$1.03), Azeri Light (+$0.04), Saharan Blend (+$1.37), and Bonny Light (+$0.15) are all open, but the economic viability is generally weak [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals crude oil has an absolute cost advantage in the Mediterranean region, consolidating its position as the main supply source [6]. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - For cracking refineries, all alternative crude oil arbitrage windows for ESPO are closed, and the negative values are large, indicating that ESPO has a strong market share and cost advantage in the Northeast Asian market. For coking refineries, there are significant opportunities. The arbitrage window for South American heavy crude Napo is open (+$5.68), and the arbitrage of Indonesian Duri and US Mars crude oil is also open [7]. Key Market News - On December 1st, shipping company Besiktas Shipping confirmed that an oil tanker carrying diesel was attacked by four external explosions near Dakar, Senegal. It was the third Russian - related vessel attacked in the past few days [8].