商品期货早班车-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each sector, aiming to assist investors in making informed decisions. 3. Summary by Directory Base Metals - Copper: Market rallied yesterday. Traders are focused on the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and the tight supply of copper concentrate and refined copper since the cesco meeting. Suggest not to chase the high and wait for a new buying point [2]. - Aluminum: The main contract of electrolytic aluminum closed 1.18% higher. With a warm macro - environment and improving fundamentals, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [2]. - Alumina: The main contract closed 1.11% lower. Due to loose supply, accumulating inventory, and weak cost support, the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [2]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: International precious metal prices were slightly divided on Monday. Gold is recommended to be bought at the lower support level, and silver can be short - term long due to the tightened overseas market [3]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: The market was narrowly volatile on Monday. With stable supply and demand, the price is expected to move between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The current situation is strong in reality but weak in Q1 expectations. The short - term price increase is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The short - term price is driven up by a short - squeeze. The subsequent price depends on the progress of the state - reserve platform. If there is no new progress, the price will fluctuate around the spot price of 53,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Tin: The price rose and then fell yesterday. With the easing of supply concerns, it is recommended to wait for a new buying point [4]. Black Industry - Rebar Steel: The main contract closed slightly higher. With weak supply and demand and significant structural differentiation, it is advisable to wait and see and consider shorting the steel mill's profit [6]. - Iron Ore: The main contract closed slightly higher. With weakening supply - demand balance and a neutral - high valuation, it is recommended to exit and wait, and consider shorting the steel mill's profit [6]. - Coking Coal: The main contract closed higher. With deteriorating steel mill profits and a high - valued futures, it is recommended to exit and wait, and consider shorting the steel mill's profit [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean fell overnight. The global supply - demand is improving but still loose. The domestic market follows the cost in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - Corn: Futures prices declined, and spot prices varied by region. The short - term supply is tight, but the new crop is expected to increase, and the cost has dropped. The futures price is expected to be volatile and bearish [7][8]. - Vegetable Oils: The Malaysian market fell. With high production in the producing areas and export decline, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [8]. - Cotton: The US cotton price was narrowly volatile. The international export situation is good, and the domestic downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - Eggs: Futures prices declined, and spot prices were stable. With balanced supply and demand, the price is expected to be volatile [8]. - Pigs: Futures prices were narrowly volatile, and spot prices mostly rose. With sufficient supply, the price is expected to be seasonally weak and the futures price to be volatile and bearish [8]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract was slightly volatile. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and bearish, and in the long - term, it is advisable to buy the far - month contract on dips [9]. - PVC: The price was at the bottom and volatile. With weak supply - demand balance, it is recommended to short [10]. - PTA: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is expected to increase in the long - term. It is recommended to take profit on long PX and short PTA processing fee positions [10]. - Rubber: The price was volatile and bearish. With falling raw material prices and inventory accumulation, it is advisable to trade in bands [10]. - Glass: The price rebounded from the bottom. With weak supply - demand and low valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PP: The main contract was slightly volatile. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and bearish, and in the long - term, it is advisable to buy the far - month contract on dips [10][11]. - MEG: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 contract and take profit on short positions appropriately [11]. - Crude Oil: The price jumped due to geopolitical risks. With a bearish fundamental and easing geopolitical risks, it is recommended to hold short positions [11]. - Styrene: In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy styrene profit on dips [11]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand is balanced. It is recommended to wait and see [11][12].