尿素早评20251202：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is the result of market consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level [1]. - Strategically, focus on opportunities to go long on dips in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On December 1st, compared with November 28th, the UR01 urea futures price in Shandong decreased by 2 yuan/ton (-0.12%), while the spot price increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.20%); UR05 increased by 1 yuan/ton (0.06%); UR09 increased by 6 yuan/ton (0.34%) [1]. - Among domestic spot prices, the prices in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with increases ranging from 1.20% - 1.79%, while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis between Shandong spot and UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged; the price of Shandong compound fertilizer (45%S) increased by 20 yuan/ton (0.66%), and the weekly price increased by 20 yuan/ton (0.78%) [1]. - The prices of downstream products such as melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1682 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1691 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1673 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1675 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton. The position volume was 219,692 lots [1]. Long - Short Logic - From a valuation perspective, the rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1]. - From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1].