国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251202

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: The commodity sentiment is hot, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Due to sector sentiment resonance, they are oscillating with a strong bias [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: They are in a wide - range oscillation [2][17][18]. - Logs: They are oscillating at a low level [2][20]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The closing price of the I2601 futures contract was 801.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan or 0.88%. The positions decreased by 14,304 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores were mostly stable, with some domestic ores rising. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [5]. - News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 futures contracts increased, with trading volumes and positions decreasing. Spot prices in various regions rose. The basis and spreads also changed [9]. - News: In the week of November 27, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 21.86 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.21 tons; apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.85 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 1.31 tons. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 2.5% month - on - month. In October 2025, national steel production data showed some declines [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose. There were changes in price differences such as basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [13]. - News: On December 1, there were price ranges for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions. An alloy plant in Inner Mongolia increased production capacity. In November, the production of silicomanganese in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia decreased, and the national total production decreased. Tianjin Port's manganese ore handling volume increased in November. Xinyu Iron and Steel set the ferrosilicon purchase price [14][16]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions decreased. There were changes in basis and spreads [18]. - News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both [19]. Logs - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts increased slightly. Trading volumes mostly decreased, while positions showed different trends. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with some showing small changes in price differences [21]. - News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [23].