集运日报：悲观情绪修复，SCFI上行带动盘面上行，建议观望为主，运价并无明显波动。-20251202

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach, with a preference for light - position participation or waiting for the current situation [2][4]. 2. Core View - Pessimistic sentiment has been repaired. The upward movement of SCFI has driven the market up, but there is no obvious fluctuation in freight rates. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound [2][4]. 3. Summary by Content SCFIS and NCFI Freight Index - On December 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period [3]. - On November 28th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, and the forecast value was - 8.5 [3]. - In the US in October, the S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [4]. - In China in October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Market and Strategy - On December 1st, the main contract 2602 closed at 1492.5, up 3.02%, with a trading volume of 26,600 lots and an open interest of 38,200 lots, a decrease of 1867 lots from the previous day [4]. - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. Do not add positions if the market plunges, and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly test positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5]. - The daily limit and daily decline limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].