铜：紧张预期，价格上涨

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The global copper market is expected to shift to a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026, which may lead to an increase in copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,280, with a daily increase of 2.12%, and the night - session closing price was 89,380, with a night - session increase of 0.11%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 11,233, with a daily increase of 0.51% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 371,241, an increase of 177,193 from the previous day, and the open interest was 586,274, an increase of 39,763. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 27,396, an increase of 4,846, and the open interest was 334,000, an increase of 939 [1]. - Futures Inventories: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 31,495, a decrease of 3,749 from the previous day, and the inventory of LME Copper was 159,425, unchanged from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 4.06%, a decrease of 0.06% [1]. - Spreads: The LME copper premium was 44.69, an increase of 28.13 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 80,100, an increase of 1,200 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI contraction was the largest in four months, with employment further contracting and prices rising. The Bank of Japan governor strongly hinted at a December interest rate hike, aiming to raise the interest rate to 0.75% [1]. - Industry News: The global copper market will shift to a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. Chile's Codelco raised the long - term contract benchmark price for electrolytic copper to China in 2026 to $350 per ton, a $261 increase from 2025. Panama may release the preliminary results of a comprehensive audit of the Cobre Panama copper mine next week [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [3].