郑棉期价延续反弹，糖价走势依旧承压

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral. Short - term expected to continue range - bound. Long - term optimistic after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Neutral. Short - term may have limited further decline and weak rebound. Long - term not optimistic [4] - Pulp: Neutral. Short - term hard to break away from the bottom. Long - term price center may rise [7] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of cotton, sugar, and pulp, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on short - term and long - term perspectives [1][2][4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13765 yuan/ton yesterday, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.29%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14763 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; national average price was 14936 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1] - As of Oct 16, 2025, US cumulative net export contracts of 2025/26 cotton were 110.6 tons (41.66% of annual expected exports), with 35.6 tons shipped (32.16% shipping rate). China's cumulative contracts were 3.1 tons, and 0.6 tons were shipped [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA raised 2025/26 global cotton production significantly but only slightly increased consumption, resulting in higher ending stocks. US cotton production increased due to higher yield, with increased sales pressure [1] - Domestic: 2025/26 domestic cotton is expected to increase. Xinjiang's cotton output is expected to be 730 - 750 tons. Short - term supply is abundant, and Zhengzhou cotton is suppressed by hedging. Demand is weak, but profit and inventory do not form negative feedback [1] Strategy - Short - term: Range - bound. Long - term: optimistic after seasonal pressure due to increased domestic cotton consumption and low import volume expectations [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5405 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [2] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar price was 5470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Yunnan Kunming's was 5425 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [2] - Thailand's 2025/26 cane base price is 890 Thai baht/ton (196.78 yuan/ton), with a floating standard of 53.40 Thai baht/CCS point (11.81 yuan/ton) [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's strong supply and India's expected production rebound suppress the market. Short - term decline may be limited, and long - term rebound is restricted [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: Higher - than - expected imports and new sugar factory openings increase short - term supply pressure [4] Strategy - Short - term: May have limited decline and weak rebound due to low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding. Long - term: not optimistic [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5190 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [4] - Spot: Shandong's Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5375 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp was 4910 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Imported wood pulp prices showed different trends, with some rising and some stable. Traders had惜售 sentiment, and downstream demand was not strong [5] Market Analysis - Supply: 2025 - 2026 overseas new capacity is limited, and some mills plan to cut production. European demand may increase, reducing China's import pressure. However, domestic new capacity may bring more supply [6] - Demand: Although there is new paper capacity, terminal demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. But expanding capacity will increase pulp demand [6] Strategy - Short - term: Hard to break away from the bottom. Long - term: price center may rise, and waiting for bottom - building to buy is recommended [7]