西部证券晨会纪要-20251202

Core Conclusions - The commercial rocket capacity breakthrough is a key variable for the turning point of China's commercial aerospace industry and the formation of capital market trends, with a high certainty of significant improvement in aerospace capacity next year [1][4]. Industry Dynamics - The satellite internet and commercial aerospace industries in China are expected to reach a fundamental turning point next year, supported by recent policies, commercial rocket launch schedules, and changes in core industry orders [3]. - The national "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, with commercial aerospace being a key focus area, as highlighted by the establishment of a Commercial Aerospace Office by the National Space Administration [3]. - The satellite internet industry is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 100% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a total of 100 satellite constellations registered, including 88 commercial projects and 12 national strategic projects [3]. - The construction of low-orbit constellations is expected to generate a market of 101.1 billion yuan for rocket capacity and 207.4 billion yuan for satellite manufacturing over the next five years, with respective CAGRs of 82% and 95% [3]. Key Variables - The upcoming launches of mainstream commercial rockets such as Zhuque-3, Tianlong-3, and Long March 12A are anticipated to significantly enhance China's commercial rocket capacity, marking a critical turning point for the industry [4]. Satellite Internet Sub-sectors and Key Companies - Key companies in the satellite internet sub-sector include: - Satellite Payloads: Zhenlei Technology, Xinke Mobile, Chengchang Technology, Shaanxi Huada, Shanghai Hantong, Chuangyi Information, Jiayuan Technology [5]. - Rocket Components: Chaojie Co., Sry New Materials, Gaohua Technology [5]. - Satellite Platform Components: Tianyin Electromechanical, China Satellite, Aerospace Huanyu, Qianzhao Optoelectronics, Shanghai Port, Fudan Microelectronics, Shanghai Huguang, Aerospace Electronics [5]. - Inspection and Testing: Sikrui, Xice Testing, Holiwo, Kunheng Shunwei [5]. - Ground Stations and Terminals: Zhenyou Technology, Tongyu Communications, Guobo Electronics, Sanwei Communications, Nanjing Panda, Mengsheng Electronics, Huali Chuantong, Changjiang Communications [5]. - Space Computing: Putian Technology, Zhongke Xingtou, Zhongke Shuguang, Xingtou Measurement and Control, Shengbang Security [5].