铅锌日评：区间整理-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Lead Market: Lead prices oscillated and declined, with the support at the raw material end weakening due to some smelters lowering waste battery prices. Considering the tight raw materials and reduced supply, the downside space for lead prices is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Zinc Market: The zinc ore supply is continuously tightening, and TC is likely to fall rather than rise, which may disrupt the supply side and provide some support for zinc prices. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, and be vigilant about the recurrence of overseas structural risks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: On December 2, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,975 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 41.94 dollars/ton on November 28, with an open interest of 167,985 contracts, an increase of 1,812 contracts [1]. - Fundamentals: The import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, last week, more smelters had maintenance, and the production of primary lead decreased. In the secondary lead sector, a smelter in Yunnan reduced production due to maintenance. The consumption of lead - acid batteries for electric bicycles is gradually weakening, while the automotive battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. - Industry News: The new mandatory national standard for electric bicycles (GB 17761 - 2024) was fully implemented on December 1, 2025, and the old - version standard vehicles are prohibited from being sold. The new standard has multi - dimensional upgrades, with a significant improvement in fire - prevention performance as the core highlight [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: On December 2, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,490 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 224.43 dollars/ton on November 28, with an open interest of 219,731 contracts, a decrease of 2,655 contracts [1]. - Fundamentals: Due to economic considerations, smelters are actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, and the domestic ore supply is tight. Processing fees are expected to continue to decline. The smelter's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly production is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. The demand side is still weak, and the start - up of some downstream enterprises has decreased due to environmental protection and cold weather [1]. - Industry News: The national mining group of country A (SONAREM) emphasized that the Bejaia zinc - lead mine project must start production as planned, with an annual production of 170,000 tons of zinc concentrate and 30,000 tons of lead concentrate. The project is in the final stage of land acquisition compensation, and legal procedures are about to end [1].