新能源及有色金属日报：铝价重心持续走高，下游接货谨慎-20251202

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The center of aluminum prices has been rising, but downstream buyers are cautious. Micro data for electrolytic aluminum do not show strong bullish factors, and the social inventory remains stable. After the absolute price increase, downstream buying enthusiasm is low, and the spot discount continues to widen. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, with prices falling below the marginal highest cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested [1][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,730 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is -50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is -180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,640 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is -135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On December 1, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opened at 21,615 yuan/ton, closed at 21,865 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 21,915 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 21,575 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 255,931 lots, and the position was 265,623 lots [2] Inventory - As of December 1, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 596,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 66,833 tons, down 102 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 537,900 tons, down 1,150 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On December 1, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,885 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 314 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On December 1, 2025, the main alumina futures contract opened at 2,701 yuan/ton, closed at 2,677 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton or 1.51% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a maximum price of 2,705 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,668 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 242,094 lots, and the position was 359,920 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 1, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 17,200 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 74,600 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,200 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,069 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was -269 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Micro data do not show strong bullish factors. The social inventory remains stable. After the price increase, downstream buying enthusiasm is low, and the spot discount continues to widen. The low absolute inventory value is not a bearish factor for prices. In the traditional consumption off - season, if the social inventory does not increase but decreases, it will become a bullish factor. The market is optimistic about future consumption, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6] Alumina - The domestic spot market price continues to be weak, and the trading volume has declined. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. Although there are production cuts in the north due to environmental protection, the impact on the current oversupply situation is limited. The bauxite price is firm, but the sentiment towards price is weakening. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory continues to increase, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern [8] Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9]