现货成交氛围延续，新单或放缓

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for the urea trading strategy, it suggests a unilateral strategy of a range - bound and bullish trend, a cross - period strategy of waiting and seeing, and no cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, with spot prices rising, but new orders may slow down. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. The export expectation at the end of the year has improved, which is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the domestic spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On December 1, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1675 yuan/ton (-2). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1680 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1690 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1680 yuan/ton (+20). The basis in Shandong was 15 yuan/ton (+22), in Henan was 5 yuan/ton (+22), and in Jiangsu was 5 yuan/ton (+22) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of December 1, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On December 1, 2025, the urea production profit was 160 yuan/ton (+20). The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 37.06% (+2.45%), and the operating rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 952 yuan/ton (-40). In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, which improves the year - end export expectation [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 1, 2025, the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00). The domestic high - inventory area is Inner Mongolia, and inventory in Inner Mongolia has decreased [1][2]