贵金属日报：美经济降速风险逐步凸显，白银持续冲高-20251202

Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Buy the Gold-Silver Ratio on Dips [8] - Options: Hold Off [9] Core Viewpoints - The main trading theme in the market is clear. The weakening indicators of the US economic performance and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts are expected to keep the gold price in a range-bound and slightly upward trend in the near term. The Au2602 contract is expected to trade between 930 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram. [8] - The current tightness in the silver spot market and the ongoing macroeconomic tailwinds have pushed the silver price to new highs. However, the high volatility of silver prices requires caution against the risk of sentiment reversal. The Ag2602 contract is expected to trade between 13,300 yuan/kilogram and 14,300 yuan/kilogram. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In November, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, staying below the 50 boom-bust line for nine consecutive months and recording the largest contraction in four months. The new orders index contracted at the fastest pace since July, and the backlog of orders saw the largest decline in seven months. [1] - US Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced that the US will reduce the tariff on South Korean cars to 15% starting from November 1 and cancel the tariff on South Korean aircraft parts to align the reciprocal tariffs with those imposed on Japan and the EU. [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 1, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (SHFE) main contract opened at 951.92 yuan/gram and closed at 963.28 yuan/gram, up 0.98% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 964.82 yuan/gram and closed at 964.72 yuan/gram, up 0.15% from the afternoon close. [2] - On December 1, 2025, the Shanghai Silver (SHFE) main contract opened at 12,720.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 13,278.00 yuan/kilogram, up 4.33% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,703,384 lots, and the open interest was 473,217 lots. In the night session, it opened at 13,303 yuan/kilogram and closed at 13,766 yuan/kilogram, up 3.68% from the afternoon close. [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 1, 2025, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.087%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.561%, down 0.21 basis points from the previous trading day. [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On December 1, 2025, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions increased by 3,516 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,041 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 422,401 lots, down 32.04% from the previous trading day. [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 1,754 lots, and the short positions increased by 5,304 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contracts on the previous trading day was 3,619,305 lots, down 11.08% from the previous trading day. [4] Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking - The holdings of the gold ETF remained unchanged at 1,045.43 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the silver ETF increased by 29 tons to 15,611 tons from the previous trading day. [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On December 1, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -13.78 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,715.57 yuan/kilogram. [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 72.55, down 0.88% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 77.79, down 1.77% from the previous trading day. [6] Fundamental Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 60,628 kilograms, down 34.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,598,962 kilograms, up 44.53% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 30 kilograms. [7]