新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-2）-20251202

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [3] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: Oscillation with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillation with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Oscillation and bottom - building [7] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [7] - Offset Paper: Oscillation [7] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound operation [7] - Palm Oil: Range - bound operation [7] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound operation [7] - Soybean Meal: Oscillation [7] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillation [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [7] - Live Pigs: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range oscillation [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with some products showing upward or downward trends. The supply and demand relationship, cost factors, policy factors, and macro - economic environment all have an impact on product prices [2][3][6] - For the black industry, the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices are mainly in a bottom - oscillating state. For the financial sector, the short - term adjustment is accompanied by an optimistic medium - term trend. For precious metals, the long - term support for gold prices is strong. For agricultural products, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as production, demand, and trade [2][3][6][7][8] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - Iron Ore: Global iron ore shipments increased by 447,000 tons to 33.232 million tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 1.555 million tons to 27.84 million tons, and daily average hot metal production decreased by 16,000 tons to 2.3468 million tons. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices are in a high - level oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: After continuous declines, the valuation is reasonable and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. The cost pressure on coking plants is high, and there are concerns about supply on the industrial side. Prices are supported at low levels in the short term [2] - Rebar: Downstream demand is sluggish, winter storage replenishment has not started, and the upper - space is limited. The steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies. It is currently in an oscillating state [2] - Glass: Supply news is disturbing, and the inventory of float glass sample enterprises has decreased. However, real - estate completion continues to decline, dragging down demand. The upward height depends on the cold - repair progress, and prices are in an oscillating state [2] Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures/Options: The market showed certain fluctuations, with some sectors having capital inflows and outflows. The visit of the French President and the draft of the REITs policy may have an impact on the market. The short - term adjustment is accompanied by an optimistic medium - term trend [3] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 23.11 billion yuan. The market trend is a small - scale rebound [3] Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting from actual interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and避险 attributes support the price. The Fed's interest - rate policy and避险 sentiment are short - term disturbing factors, and the long - term support for gold prices is strong [6] - Silver: Similar to gold, it is in an oscillating state with an upward bias, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate policy and economic data [6] Light Industry - Logs: The port daily shipment volume decreased, the import volume changed, and the inventory decreased. The supply pressure is improving, and prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [7] - Pulp: The spot - market price is differentiated, the cost support is enhanced, but the demand from paper mills is weak. Prices are expected to show weak oscillation [7] - Offset Paper: The spot - market price is stable, the supply is stable, orders are expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate [7] Oils and Fats - Oils: The demand for soybean raw materials is strong, but there are uncertainties in the bio - diesel policy. The production and inventory of palm oil are high, and exports are weak. The supply of domestic oils is abundant, and prices are expected to continue range - bound operation [7] - Meals: The supply of US soybeans is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate [7] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the supply is abundant, the demand is limited, and the settlement price is decreasing. The slaughter - house operating rate may weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The raw - material price is supported, the demand from tire enterprises is weak, the inventory is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [10] Polyester - PX: OPEC+ suspended production increase, and the price is in wide - range oscillation due to strong supply and increased demand [10] - PTA: The cost end is loose, the short - term supply - demand is improved, but the industry will weaken seasonally. Prices follow the cost end [10] - MEG: There is a long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the price oscillates in the short term with upward pressure [10] - PR: The polyester bottle - chip market may rise due to cost drivers, but the upward range is limited [10] - PF: The rising oil price is beneficial to the market sentiment, but there is a wait - and - see attitude [10]