2025年12月02日：期货市场交易指引-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro - Finance - Index: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Hold off from chasing high prices, wait and see [1][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Short - term range trading [1][10] - Aluminum: Reduce long positions when it rebounds to a high level [1][11] - Nickel: Wait and see or short on rallies [1][13] - Tin: Range trading [1][14] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Hold long positions, be cautious about new positions [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish - leaning range - bound [1][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [1][18] - Caustic soda: Wait and see for now [1][20] - Soda ash: Wait and see for now [1][25] - Styrene: Range trading [1][20] - Rubber: Range trading [1][21] - Urea: Range trading [1][22] - Methanol: Range trading [1][24] - Polyolefins: Bearish - leaning range - bound [1][24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [1][28] - PTA: Range - bound [1][28] - Apples: Bullish - leaning range - bound [1][29] - Jujubes: Bearish - leaning range - bound [1][30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Near - term contracts may adjust weakly at low levels, be cautious about chasing high prices in far - term contracts [1][32] - Eggs: Limited upside [1][33] - Corn: Hedge on rallies, be cautious about chasing high prices in the short - term; expect support in the long - term, but limited upside [1][35] - Soybean meal: Range trading [1][37] - Oils: Rebound from lows, adopt a buy - on - dips strategy [1][42] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment strategies for various futures products in different sectors. It analyzes the market situation of each product based on factors such as supply and demand, macro - economic data, and geopolitical events. For most products, it suggests range trading or a wait - and - see approach, while for some, it gives clear long or short signals according to their specific fundamentals [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - Index: A - shares showed a volatile upward trend on Monday. The market is affected by factors such as PMI data, policy discussions, and international negotiations. The index may be range - bound in the short - term but is optimistic in the long - term [5]. - Treasury bonds: Treasury futures mostly rose. The market may focus on the actual scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations at the end of the month. With weak profit - making effects in the bond market, the downward space for yields is limited [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand, and most market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - Rebar: The price of rebar futures was strong on Monday. In the short - term, there is no significant supply - demand contradiction, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. - Glass: Although the futures price has rebounded due to production line shutdown rumors, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase high prices for near - term contracts [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The situation in Congo (Kinshasa) needs attention. The market consumption has improved, and the social inventory has decreased. The long - term demand for copper is optimistic, but in the short - term, it is necessary to beware of the impact of high prices on consumption and policy changes [10]. - Aluminum: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported ore is expected to increase. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has changed. The downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11]. - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may be loose in the future. The refined nickel market is in a surplus, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand [14]. - Silver: Fed officials' dovish remarks have increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver prices have rebounded. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [16]. - Gold: Similar to silver, the gold price has rebounded due to interest rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand. Range trading is recommended [16]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of mines in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jixiawo lithium mine [18]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to policy and cost changes [18]. - Caustic soda: The alumina industry may affect the demand for caustic soda. The supply is high in winter. The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts [20]. - Styrene: The recent rebound is due to the "blending oil" narrative, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20]. - Rubber: The overseas raw material price has fallen, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The demand for tires is limited. The rubber price may continue to decline without strong positive factors [21]. - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand has weakened, and the industrial demand has strengthened. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be range - bound [22]. - Methanol: The supply has recovered, the demand for methanol - to - olefins has increased slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased [24]. - Polyolefins: The supply has changed, the demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased. The PE contract is expected to oscillate within a range, and the PP contract is expected to be bearish - leaning [24]. - Soda ash: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The global cotton supply - demand data is loose, but the strong yarn price has driven the cotton price to rebound [28]. - PTA: The international oil price has fallen, the PTA price has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is such that the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short - term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not significant. In the long - term, the production capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. It is recommended to short near - term contracts on rallies and be cautious about far - term contracts [32]. - Eggs: In the short - term, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply - demand situation is improving marginally. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [33]. - Corn: In the short - term, the price has rebounded, but there is still selling pressure. In the long - term, the demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [35]. - Soybean meal: The domestic and international soybean prices have fallen. It is recommended to conduct range trading and for spot enterprises to price the basis from November to January on dips [37]. - Oils: The short - term performance of oils is under pressure, but there is support in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to relevant data and reports [42].