华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251202

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the coal and coke industry remain weak with stable domestic coal production, high - level Mongolian coal imports, and a downward trend in domestic hot metal production, but there are signs of increasing market trading of macro - level policy expectations, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke oscillated and rebounded, leading the black metal sector with sharp price fluctuations. The positions of the 01 contract were gradually transferred to the 05 contract. The spot market was generally weak, with coal prices in some domestic regions experiencing supplementary declines, and the first round of coke price cuts was implemented in mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong [2] Fundamentals - Supply side: Last week, the production of multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang, Shanxi decreased due to various reasons for shutdowns, and most shutdowns were for a long time, so there was little room for a significant increase in coal mine output in the short term. In December, some coal mines said that the year - end production tasks were nearly completed, the pressure on safety production was high, and the downstream's willingness to purchase weakened, leading to a slight increase in self - controlled production and reduction by coal mines. The daily average output of coking coal last week was 76.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million tons. The daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal last week slightly decreased to 17 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from the previous week, but the overall customs clearance level remained high, and the ports continued to increase inventory, with the decline in Mongolian coal prices dragging down domestic coal prices [2] - Demand side: The demand continued to be under pressure. The procurement rhythm of downstream coal - using enterprises slowed down recently, causing the upstream mines to accumulate inventory. The coking production was okay, but the profitability of steel mills shrank, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the daily average hot metal output dropped to 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.81 million tons compared with last year, with room for further decline in December [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [3]