华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with significant pressure at the end of the year. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and news from the mining end [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and are expected to resume production from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total area of newly - built commercial housing transactions (signings) in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3] - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Macroeconomic factors: due to weak US economic data and dovish remarks from Fed officials, traders believe the probability of a December interest - rate cut has increased to 87%. The US manufacturing industry has been in decline for the ninth consecutive month in November [2] - Fundamentals: in November, China's bauxite production decreased by 1.56% month - on - month and 5.26% year - on - year; domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.47% year - on - year and decreased by 2.82% month - on - month. Since November, electrolytic aluminum has gradually transitioned from the peak consumption season to the off - season, with a decline in downstream operating rates and a decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum [3] - In December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Some new electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to start production from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress [3] - Last week, the operating rate of downstream processed materials increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.3%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, recycled aluminum alloy, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables increased slightly, while that of sheet - strip - foil remained flat. The automotive industry drives the upward trend of the industry's operating rate, but the construction industry is still sluggish [3] - On December 1, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 596,000 tons, unchanged from last Thursday and a decrease of 17,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Supported by macro - sentiment, there are still expectations of tightened overseas supply in the fundamentals. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, there is a delay in consumption realization, inventory trends are volatile, and there is still pressure above. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but there is significant pressure at the end of the year [4]