塑料期货月报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint In November, the total volume of polyethylene shrank, but LLDPE increased. The supply - demand, variety, and regional differentiation put pressure on prices. There is no clear positive news in supply and demand. With no expected supply contraction and weak demand recovery, the market has insufficient short - term improvement expectations, and the price is restricted from rising. In December, the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern of the polyethylene market is difficult to change substantially, and the market is likely to continue the weak and volatile trend, with prices under pressure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Section Supply Side - November Situation: The total domestic polyethylene supply in November showed a pattern of total contraction and structural differentiation. The total output decreased by 561,400 tons month - on - month to 2.68953 million tons, while LLDPE output increased by 307,000 tons to 1.23863 million tons. The maintenance loss decreased by 28.6% to 368,200 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate rose to 83.24%, with a "two - up, one - down" regional pattern. North China decreased slightly, East China rose significantly by 8.27% to 91.45%, and South China also increased [7][8]. - December Outlook: The supply is expected to remain abundant in December. The operation of on - site devices is stable, and with the supplement of previously delayed imported resources, there will be no significant fluctuations in the supply side. The demand lacks clear growth points, and the overall demand provides weak support [5][9]. Inventory - November Situation: In late November, the inventory pattern showed an increase in production - end inventory and a decrease in circulation - end inventory. The production - end inventory of PE enterprises rose by 38,000 tons to 454,000 tons, with coal - based enterprises at 70,000 tons and two - oil enterprises at 384,000 tons. The LLDPE production - end inventory rose by 26,900 tons to 166,100 tons. The PE social inventory decreased by 56,300 tons to 471,100 tons, and the LLDPE social inventory decreased by 20,200 tons to 176,500 tons [12][13]. - December Outlook: The high production - end inventory still potentially suppresses the market. If the demand improvement is not sustainable, the inventory pressure may be transmitted to the circulation link. If the production end adjusts the production plan, the inventory structural contradiction may be alleviated [5]. Import - November Situation: In November, the domestic polyethylene import market showed complex trends. Import prices were regionally differentiated, with LLDPE CFR China at $800/ton (down $14/ton month - on - month), CFR Southeast Asia at $844/ton (down $7/ton), FD Northwest Europe at €899/ton (up €20/ton), and FOB Middle East at $787/ton (down $28/ton). In October, the total import volume decreased slightly by 11,000 tons to 1.0112 million tons, while LLDPE imports increased by 32,900 tons to 358,900 tons. The average monthly import profit showed a pattern of "one up, two down", with LLDPE at - 26.74 yuan/ton (down 13.48 yuan/ton), LDPE at 508.89 yuan/ton (up 110.73 yuan/ton), and HDPE at 16.96 yuan/ton (down 93.55 yuan/ton) [17][18][19]. Demand Side - November Situation: In November, the overall downstream开工率 of polyethylene was 44.59%, down 0.33% month - on - month. The agricultural film industry's开工率 was 49.72%, up 7.9%, while the packaging film industry's开工率 was 50.7%, down 0.6%. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises showed structural changes. The available days of agricultural film enterprises' raw material inventory increased to 15.37 days, and that of packaging film enterprises decreased to 8.33 days [23][24]. - December Outlook: In December, the agricultural film demand will enter the off - season, the packaging film will maintain rigid procurement with limited order growth, and the overall demand will be weakly supportive [5]. Cost and Profit - Cost: In November, the oil - based polyethylene cost decreased to 7,260.54 yuan/ton, down 79.32 yuan/ton month - on - month, due to the weak international crude oil market. The coal - based polyethylene cost increased to 7,012.25 yuan/ton, up 358.36 yuan/ton month - on - month, due to the supply - demand adjustment in the coal market [28][29]. - Profit: In November, the profit of oil - based enterprises decreased significantly to - 383.04 yuan/ton, down 146.89 yuan/ton month - on - month, and coal - based enterprises turned from profit to loss, with a profit of - 130.82 yuan/ton, down 532.94 yuan/ton month - on - month [31]. - Spread: In November, the average spread of the PE - PVC:01 contract was 2,238.4 yuan/ton, up 0.69 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the average spread of the PE - PP:01 contract was 371.6 yuan/ton, up 56.84 yuan/ton month - on - month [32].