玉米期货月报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose. The recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to the combined effect of temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. Although the Northeast production area faces pressure from concentrated grain sales and downstream demand has not recovered significantly, factors such as poor grain flow, low inventory in the trading and downstream sectors, and possible strengthening of farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a strong - oscillating price trend during the traditional supply - pressure period. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [5][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - As of the end of November, the price of the main corn contract rose from the previous low (2000 - 2100 yuan/ton) and then entered a high - level oscillation pattern due to lack of subsequent driving forces. Frequent snow and rain in the Northeast improved new - grain storage conditions, strengthened farmers' reluctance to sell, and restricted logistics, reducing the outflow of grain and supporting the corn price in the production area. However, downstream demand was weak, enterprise inventory was relatively sufficient, and losses in the breeding sector suppressed feed consumption, resulting in low market trading activity. The current price increase is supported by short - term supply - demand mismatches, and its sustainability and upward space need further observation [7]. - The overall futures - spot structure shows a Contango structure, with 01 at a discount to 05 and 05 at a discount to 09 [8]. 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose Supply in the Corn Market Lays the Foundation for Low Prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". In 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 282 million tons, an increase of 11.13 million tons compared with 2024. The Northeast had significant production increases, while the North China's output was flat due to weather. Since July 1, the auction of imported corn and the increasing substitution of wheat for corn in feed use have jointly promoted the transformation of the corn market from a structurally tight balance to an overall loose one [11]. - The new - season corn planting cost in the Northeast in 2025/2026 is 1078 - 1379 yuan/mu, a decrease of 50 - 150 yuan/mu compared with the previous year. After adding other costs, the estimated port - collection price is around 2100 yuan/ton, but due to production and rent adjustments, it is reduced to 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is in the range of 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Although the national corn output has increased, there are still prominent regional and structural contradictions. In North China, about 20 - 30 million tons of corn cannot be used for feed due to quality problems, increasing the demand for Northeast corn. Logistics bottlenecks have also exacerbated the supply - demand mismatch between production and sales areas. Currently, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast is about 19% and in North China is about 23%, and there will still be supply pressure from concentrated grain sales later [15]. - In October 2025, China imported 12.028 million tons of grain, and from January to October, the cumulative import was 118.775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8%. In October, the corn import volume was 359,000 tons, a significant increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year. From January to October, the corn import volume was 1.2928 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.15%. The import volumes of wheat, sorghum, and barley also decreased significantly, indicating that domestic supply basically meets demand and the proportion of imported corn in the market has shrunk rapidly [16][17]. - In 2025, the wheat output increased by about 4%, and due to weak downstream demand, wheat had a price advantage over corn, resulting in a substitution of 20 - 30 million tons in the feed sector. As the corn - wheat price difference reversed, the substitution effect of wheat weakened, and the diverted demand returned to the corn market [22]. 3.2.2 Downstream Demand Remains Rigid but Without Increment, with Limited Boosting Effect - Corn consumption is mainly concentrated in feed - breeding and deep - processing. The current downstream market shows "stable rigid demand but lack of significant growth momentum" [26]. - In the feed - breeding sector, since July, policies have been promoting the reduction of the inventory of breeding sows, but the process of capacity reduction is slow. As of September 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, and the inventory of breeding sows was still high. The pig index has fallen below the breeding cost, and the pig futures and spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the industry will gradually enter the capacity - reduction stage [27]. - In the deep - processing sector, after the new - season corn price dropped, deep - processing enterprises in the north and south generally turned from losses to profits. The deep - processing starch profits in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Shandong were about 81.92 yuan/ton, 41.04 yuan/ton, 33.06 yuan/ton, and - 76.06 yuan/ton respectively [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory at a Phased Low Increases Price Elasticity - As of November 21, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.4 million tons, and the inventory in Guangdong Port was 599,000 tons, both at a medium - low level in recent years. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain and traders' reluctance to sell, while the decline in southern port inventory reflects reduced arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory weakens the buffering effect of the market, making price fluctuations more sensitive to supply and demand changes [33][37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose, and the recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [39].