格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic urea production decreased, the agricultural season is off - peak, and industrial demand is gradually increasing. The latest Indian tender price meets market expectations, so the short - term urea price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 1630 - 1730 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to focus on going long on far - month contracts [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2601 dropped 3 yuan to 1675 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area rose to 1680 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 5655 lots to 212,900 lots, and short positions increased by 541 lots to 233,800 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The daily urea production in the industry is 199,000 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons compared to the previous working day and an increase of 14,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate is 82.28%, a 0.67% increase compared to 81.6% in the same period last year [1] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1363,900 tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons and a 5.10% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of the urea port samples is 100,000 tons, remaining the same month - on - month [1] 3.2.3 Demand - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37.1%, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 57.4%, a 4.2% month - on - month increase [1] 3.2.4 Tender - On November 20th, the lowest CFR prices of the Indian IPL urea import tender were 418.40 dollars/ton on the east coast and 419.50 dollars/ton on the west coast, both from AGRIFIELD, with 24 suppliers' offers received [1] 3.2.5 Economic Data - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 49.7%. The overall economic outlook is stable [1] 3.3 Market Logic - With domestic urea production decline, off - peak agricultural season, increasing industrial demand, and the latest Indian tender price in line with market expectations, the short - term urea price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 1630 - 1730 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to focus on going long on far - month contracts [1]