光储行业跟踪:10月国内光伏装机量环比上涨,储能电芯排产延续增长态势
Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-12-02 03:28

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market index [3][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stable production trend in the photovoltaic (PV) component sector, with a slight increase in production from leading companies, while most others are reducing output to clear inventory. The total production for November is expected to be below 44.5 GW, with potential for recovery in profit margins leading to increased production [3]. - In December 2025, the production forecast for batteries in China is 220 GWh, reflecting a 5.3% month-on-month increase, with energy storage batteries accounting for approximately 35.3% of this total. Globally, the production is expected to reach 235 GWh, up 3.1% month-on-month, indicating strong growth in energy storage despite pressure on power battery production [3]. - The average price of polysilicon remains stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has slightly decreased to 1.20 CNY/piece. The average price for energy storage systems based on lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased by 10% to 0.5547 CNY/Wh [3]. - Domestic demand for PV installations saw a significant increase in October 2025, with new installations reaching 12.6 GW, a 30.4% month-on-month growth, although this represents a 38.3% year-on-year decline. Cumulatively, new installations for the year reached 252.87 GW, up 39.5% year-on-year [3]. - Export data indicates that in October 2025, the export value of PV components was approximately 2.258 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 4.39%, despite a month-on-month decline of 19.34%. The cumulative export value for the first ten months of 2025 was 23.473 billion USD, down 4.89% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Production - PV component production has shown stability, with leading companies increasing output slightly while others reduce to manage inventory. November's production is projected to be below 44.5 GW [3][4]. Prices - The price of polysilicon remains at 52.00 CNY/kg, while monocrystalline silicon wafer prices have decreased slightly. Energy storage system prices have increased by 10% [3][7]. Domestic Demand - New PV installations in October reached 12.6 GW, marking a 30.4% month-on-month increase but a 38.3% year-on-year decline. Cumulative installations for the year are at 252.87 GW, up 39.5% year-on-year [3][18]. Overseas Demand - The export value of PV components in October was approximately 2.258 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 4.39%. The cumulative export value for the first ten months was 23.473 billion USD, down 4.89% year-on-year [3][28].

光储行业跟踪:10月国内光伏装机量环比上涨,储能电芯排产延续增长态势 - Reportify