贵金属日评：日本央行加息预期抽走便宜钱或使贵金属价格有所调整-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The strong signal of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December may lead to an adjustment in precious metal prices due to the expected return of "cheap money" in yen, while the weak performance of some US economic and employment data and the dovish statements of some Fed officials have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [1] - The global supply - demand of platinum is expected to be tight in 2025 - 2026, but the expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December and the Bank of Japan's rate hike may lead to an adjustment in platinum prices [1] - The global supply - demand of palladium is expected to shift from tight to loose in 2025 - 2026, and similar to platinum, the Fed and Bank of Japan's policies may cause an adjustment in palladium prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Precious Metals Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold futures' closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 958.27 yuan/gram, with a daily change of 10.86 and a weekly change of 17.58; COMEX gold futures' closing price was 4265.00 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 8.60 and a weekly change of 188.30 [1] - Silver: Shanghai silver futures' closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13261.00 yuan/kg, with a daily change of 592.00 and a weekly change of 1129.00; COMEX silver futures' closing price was 58.45 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 1.37 and a weekly change of 8.10 [1] 3.2 Important Information - The contraction of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in November reached the largest in four months, with employment further contracting and prices rising [1] - The Bank of Japan's governor strongly hinted at an interest rate hike in December, aiming to raise the interest rate to 0.75% [1] 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Logic - Gold and Silver: The expected return of "cheap money" yen may lead to an adjustment in precious metal prices, while the Fed's possible rate cut in December provides support [1] - Platinum: Supply is disturbed by high mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging equipment, while demand from multiple industries is expected to rise, but price adjustments may occur due to central bank policies [1] - Palladium: Supply may increase due to the global vehicle scrapping cycle, while demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline, and price adjustments may also be affected by central bank policies [1] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Platinum: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, or consider the arbitrage opportunity of "long platinum, short palladium". Pay attention to support and resistance levels for London and domestic platinum prices [1] - Palladium: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels. Pay attention to support and resistance levels for London and domestic palladium prices [1]