有色金属数据日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The market has a dovish expectation for the Fed's December interest rate cut, with an 87% probability, leading to a positive risk - appetite and a strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector. However, China's November official manufacturing PMI is 49.2, indicating a weak economic recovery. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends based on their own industrial fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - LME Non - ferrous Metals Futures Prices: Copper is at $11,159 with a 2.03% change, aluminum at $2,873 with a 1.75% change, nickel at $14,880 with a 0.24% change, tin at $38,945 with a 1.89% change, and zinc at $2,01 with a 1.14% change. The 15:00 futures prices also show corresponding changes [1]. - SHFE Non - ferrous Metals Futures Prices: Aluminum is at 21,730 yuan with a 1.4% change, nickel at 117,850 yuan with a 0.66% change, and tin at 308,200 yuan with a 2.73% change [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME Inventory: Total LME copper inventory is 152,950 tons, zinc is 52,025 tons, aluminum is 537,900 tons, nickel is 254,364 tons, and tin is 3,160 tons, with corresponding changes in inventory and warehouse - receipt cancellation ratios [1][2]. - SHFE Inventory: Copper inventory is 97,930 tons with a - 11.46% change, zinc is 95,916 tons with a - 4.42% change, aluminum is 115,277 tons with a - 6.82% change, nickel is 40,782 tons with a 2.48% change, and tin is 3,356 tons with a 2.09% change [2]. Premium and Discount Indicators - LME Premium and Discount: Copper's premium changes from 16.6 to 44.7 dollars/ton, zinc from 165.4 to 224.4 dollars/ton, aluminum from - 28.5 to - 26 dollars/ton, nickel from - 197.1 to - 196.8 dollars/ton [2]. - SHFE Premium and Discount: Copper has no data, zinc changes from 50 to 10 yuan/ton, aluminum from - 40 to - 50 yuan/ton [2]. Price Ratio and Spread Indicators - Shanghai - London Price Ratio: Copper's ratio changes from 7.83 to 7.92 with a 1.05% change, zinc from 7.34 to 7.32 with a - 0.36% change, aluminum from 7.52 to 7.56 with a 0.5% change, nickel from 7.87 to 7.89 with a 0.25% change, and tin from 7.83 to 7.87 with a 0.44% change [2]. - SHFE Near - Month to Third - Consecutive - Month Spread: Copper's spread changes from 60 to - 80 yuan/ton, zinc from - 90 to - 80 yuan/ton, and aluminum from - 790 to - 780 yuan/ton [2]. Metal - Specific Analysis - Copper: The market sentiment is positive, and the industrial side has support. Chile's state - owned copper company offers a high premium for 2026 copper, indicating concerns about refined copper shortages. The price is expected to remain strong [2]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the industrial driving force is limited. With the deepening of the domestic off - season, the ingot - casting rate increases, and the social inventory remains stable. The price is expected to rise further [2]. - Zinc: The macro - sentiment improves, and the supply is expected to decrease significantly. The domestic and foreign inventory differentiation trend slows down, and the price is expected to be volatile and strong [2]. - Nickel: The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation rises, and the geopolitical concerns ease. The Indonesian nickel - related policy has a limited impact for now. The global nickel inventory continues to accumulate, and the price may follow the macro - trend. Short - term low - buying within the range is recommended [2].