光大期货金融期货日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shifted focus to fundamental logic after the liquidity-driven rally since June. New productive forces led by AI, especially the upstream hardware manufacturing in the technology sector, have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, but the relevant themes have seen large gains since June and are in a volatile phase approaching the year - end. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclicals are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume and volatility are decreasing, and risk appetite is falling, so the index is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] - The central bank's operations have led to a net withdrawal of funds. The bond market shows a "good news exhausted" situation, with treasury bond yields rising slightly and the yield curve steepening. In December, with loose funds but weak expectations of interest - rate cuts, a marginally weakening but resilient economy, and mild inflation recovery, the treasury bond market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Directory Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The market trended upward on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3,900 points. Stocks generally rose, and trading volume was close to 1.89 trillion yuan. After the liquidity rally since June, the market focuses on fundamentals. AI - related themes have optimistic growth expectations but are in a volatile state due to lack of catalysts. Traditional sectors are in a slow recovery. The index is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: On the previous trading day, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.08%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.12%, 0.1%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The bond market shows a "good news exhausted" situation, and is expected to fluctuate narrowly in December [1][2] Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: From November 28 to December 1, 2025, IH rose 23.2 points (0.78%), IF rose 49.6 points (1.10%), IC rose 57.4 points (0.82%), and IM rose 29.2 points (0.40%) [3] - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai 50 rose 24.1 points (0.81%), the CSI 300 rose 49.8 points (1.10%), the CSI 500 rose 70.3 points (1.00%), and the CSI 1000 rose 52.5 points (0.72%) [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: TS rose 0.034 points (0.03%), TF rose 0.095 points (0.09%), T rose 0.1 points (0.09%), and TL fell 0.12 points (- 0.10%) [3] Market News - Model Release: DeepSeek announced the release of two official models, DeepSeek - V3.2 and DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale. DeepSeek - V3.2 is suitable for daily use, while DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale aims to maximize reasoning ability [5] - Housing Price: In November, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 17,036 yuan per square meter, up 0.37% month - on - month and 2.68% year - on - year. Prices in first - tier cities rose 0.75% month - on - month and 6.66% year - on - year, in second - tier cities rose 0.36% month - on - month and 1.89% year - on - year, and in third - and fourth - tier cities fell 0.18% month - on - month and 1.55% year - on - year [5] Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The section includes charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][8] - Treasury Bond Futures: The section contains charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][14][17] - Exchange Rates: The section presents charts of the central parity rates, forward exchange rates, and currency indices of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB [21][22][24]