美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价：沪铜日评20251202-20251202

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251202: Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cut in December Support Copper Prices" [1] Group 2: Copper Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 89,280, up 1,850 from the previous period; trading volume was 189,675 lots, up 95,167; open interest was 232,702 lots, up 14,445; inventory was 31,495 tons, down 3,749 [2] - The Shanghai copper basis was -51, up 25; SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 89,275, up 1,875; SMM semi - water copper opening discount - half average price was 25, down 30; SMM premium copper opening discount - half average price was 190, up 10 [2] London Copper - On December 1, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 11,232.5, up 57; LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 69.1, up 24.41; LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 218.26, up 23.26; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9484, up 0.13 [2] COMEX Copper - On December 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.269, up 0.07; total inventory was 429,346, up 11,680 [2] Group 3: Core Views Supply - Demand Logic - Supply side: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, the China copper concentrate import index remains negative, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The overhaul capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods decreased, and that of recycled copper rods remained flat. Higher copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness [2] - Inventory side: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, while LME electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased [2] Market Outlook - Weak US employment performance has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines may make the Shanghai copper price cautiously bullish [2] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the resistance levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2]