Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment this year, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers a layout opportunity for the index's further rise next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, improving the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on various commodities Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - Stock Index Futures: The recent market adjustment provides a layout opportunity for the index's rise next year. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the discount structure of index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1] - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the market sentiment is positive, and the industrial side provides support, so the price is running strongly [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, but the macro - sentiment is positive, leading to a price rebound [1] - Alumina: The domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line. Attention should be paid to the change in ore prices [1] - Zinc: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the macro - sentiment is improving. The reduction in processing fees in December led to a production cut of over 30,000 tons, improving the fundamentals and supporting the price. It is oscillating strongly in the short term but faces upward pressure [1] - Nickel: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. The nickel price has rebounded after position reduction. In the short term, it may oscillate with the macro - situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. In the medium - to - long - term, primary nickel remains in an oversupply situation [1] - Stainless Steel: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. The raw material price has stopped falling. In the short term, it is oscillating. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of selling at high levels for hedging [1] - Tin: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is improving. Due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, the price is rising. However, considering the demand pressure, be cautious when chasing high. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still bullish. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels during the callback [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Affected by the silver squeeze and the high probability of a December interest - rate cut, the price may run strongly [1] - Silver: The squeeze sentiment is fermenting, and the price is rising strongly. It is bullish in the short term, but be vigilant against high volatility [1] - Platinum: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price still has a premium over the foreign market, so the volatility may be relatively large [1] - Palladium: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price is higher than the foreign market. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. The medium - term long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1] - Industrial Silicon: The northwest production capacity is resuming, and the southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and the terminal installation is increasing marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - Polysilicon: The production schedule decreased in November, and there was a joint production cut in the organic silicon industry. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods [1] - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production and increasing production. The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum [1] Building Materials and Steel - Rebar: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - arbitrage positions. Do not chase high for unilateral trading, and appropriate participation in spot - futures positions is recommended [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Similar to rebar, the macro - drive in December provides rebound momentum, and basis positive - arbitrage positions can be rolled and participated in. Do not chase high for unilateral trading [1] - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, take a short - term view for unilateral trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash - out the short - hedging positions [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: The supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but the short - term price is driven by sentiment and fluctuates strongly. Soda ash follows glass, but the upward price resistance is relatively large [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1] - Rapeseed: The industry is optimistic about the supplement of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. Consider short - selling opportunities [1] - Cotton: The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no drive". In the future, pay attention to the central No. 1 document's tone on direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the peak season [1] - Sugar: The global sugar supply has changed from shortage to surplus, and the raw sugar price is under pressure. The domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased compared with the same period last year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be under pressure and follow the raw sugar [1] - Grain and Oil Crops: The short - term replenishment demand of downstream low - inventory cannot be met in time due to logistics and weather factors, resulting in a phased supply - demand mismatch. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1] - Soybean Meal: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. Pay attention to the South American weather. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for unilateral trading and the spot basis [1] - Paper Pulp: There have been cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new warehouse receipts recently. The recovery of the demand side remains to be verified, and it is oscillating in the short term [1] - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but it has been priced in the market. The profit - loss ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline in the market is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - Live Pigs: The recent spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for catch - up work during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is relatively high [1] - Natural Rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the basis between futures and spot is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] - BR Rubber: The support of butadiene price is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation to the market. The supply price of mainstream butadiene rubber has been significantly reduced, but rubber factories still have profits and strong processing willingness. The high - inventory and loose fundamentals still suppress the upward price movement, but the current synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound range [1] - PTA: OPEC's production increase is slowing down, the US's action expectation on Venezuela is wavering. The domestic PTA manufacturers' export prospects have improved, boosting the PX procurement sentiment [1] - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. The coal price is falling, and the domestic cost support for ethylene glycol continues to weaken. The domestic device commissioning expectation strongly suppresses the rise of ethylene glycol [1] - Short - Fiber: The price of PTA has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has also strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1] - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has decreased, and the cost support for styrene has weakened [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from the anti - internal - roll and the cost side [1] - Propylene: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is at a high level, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the high - level propylene monomer provides strong cost support [1] - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, the supply will increase, the demand will weaken, and the orders are not good [1] - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants in Guangxi have started to deliver goods, and some alumina plants have delayed production. The delivery rhythm has slowed down. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls. There is a pressure of inventory accumulation in Shandong caustic soda, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of a squeeze [1] - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of loose fundamentals. CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The ethylene device of Maoming Petrochemical in South China is planned to be overhauled, and there is an expectation of an increase in civilian supply from now to January. The combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a supplementary decline. Pay attention to the rise of the near - month price affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [1] Shipping - Container Shipping (European Line): The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]
日度策略参考-20251202
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-12-02 03:34