黑色金属数据日报-20251202

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Adopt a unilateral range trading strategy; consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils and use options strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [5]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulating options to protect their spot exposure [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Speculators should focus on buying far-month contracts at low prices [5]. - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to run slightly stronger, with prices fluctuating in a narrow range. There may be some room for a decline in iron ore production in December, and attention should be paid to the subsequent winter storage replenishment drive [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are expected to be under pressure and weaken due to the over - supply situation, despite the strengthening cost support [5]. - The first round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented, but the coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices, considering the possible downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December [5]. - Iron ore is facing significant pressure at the upper end of the range. Due to the expected increase in inventory and the decline in steel mill profitability, it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Monday, both futures and spot prices rose, and trading volume increased. In December, focus on macro - trading expectations, such as the US interest rate cut expectations and China's Central Economic Work Conference [3]. - In the industrial sector, the seasonal off - season has not yet formed a consistent negative narrative. The inventory and production pressure of hot - rolled coils are prominent, which restricts the upside of prices and market participants' willingness to hold inventory. However, funds are not actively shorting steel prices due to low steel mill profitability [3]. - After December, there may be some appropriate inventory replenishment in the industrial sector, providing support at low prices. The iron ore production may decline in December, and then attention should be paid to the start of the winter storage replenishment drive [3]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have rebounded with the black - metal sector, but the driving force is still insufficient [4]. - The steel price is under pressure, steel mill profits are shrinking, iron ore production is decreasing, and direct demand is expected to weaken. With the arrival of the off - season for terminal demand, the negative feedback pressure is gradually accumulating [5]. - Alloy factories have poor profits, but production remains high, and there is insufficient motivation for self - reduction or production control. The medium - term over - supply pressure remains high, and inventory and warehouse receipts are accumulating [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, the coking coal auction failure rate is high, and most transaction prices have fallen. Affected by the futures rebound, some Mongolian coal traders' quotes are temporarily stable, but market trading is average [5]. - In the futures market, on the first trading day of December, market risk appetite is good. With many domestic meetings in December, market expectations are high. Although the first - round coke price cuts have been implemented, the previous low points in the futures market have priced in 3 - 4 rounds of price cuts. With the increase in risk appetite, coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding [5]. - The steel data is still good, the apparent demand is seasonally weak but still resilient, production has increased, and the de - stocking slope is similar to the same period. The industrial contradictions are not prominent. Coking coal prices are weak due to the slowdown in downstream replenishment, but there are still fluctuations on the supply side [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore has reached the upper end of the range - bound trading. In the short term, the arrival volume has increased, and the subsequent shipment volume is expected to remain stable, with no significant unexpected fluctuations [5]. - In the medium term, inventory will continue to accumulate under pressure. Some steel mills in southern China are facing increased losses and weakening demand, leading to maintenance. The steel mill iron ore production has slightly decreased to 268 million tons (-1.6). Steel mill profitability is affecting production willingness, and it is expected that subsequent fluctuations will mainly come from steel mill production cuts, which will lead to a continuous increase in port inventory [5]. - Due to inventory pressure, it is difficult for iron ore to break through the upper end of the range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [5].