2025年11月宏观数据预测：11月经济前瞻：需求偏疲软，生产有韧性

Production - November industrial production is expected to improve, with the industrial added value growth rate projected at 5.3% year-on-year[15] - The recovery in industrial production is supported by policies focusing on equipment manufacturing and new growth drivers, while external demand recovers faster than internal demand[15] - Service sector activity is expected to slow down due to the fading holiday effect, with the business activity index dropping to 49.5[17] Consumption - The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in November is projected to be 2.7%, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of 2.9%[18] - The weakening of the "old-for-new" policy and reduced fiscal support are expected to pressure consumption, particularly in categories like home appliances and automobiles[18] - Anticipated declines in automobile sales are expected to further impact consumer spending, with a projected year-on-year drop of 8.7% in the narrow passenger car retail market[19] Investment - Fixed asset investment from January to November is expected to decline by 2.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 1.7% and real estate investment dropping by 15.3%[20] - The construction sector remains under pressure, with the narrow infrastructure investment expected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year[38] - The issuance of new local government special bonds has reached 4.46 trillion yuan, exceeding the initial target for the year[38] Financial Data - New RMB loans in November are expected to be 300 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.4%[9] - The total social financing in November is projected to be 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 342 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.4%[9] - M2 growth is expected to decline to 8.0% from the previous 8.2%, while M1 growth is projected to drop to 5.3% from 6.2%[9]