2025年11月PMI数据点评：制造业景气水平小幅回升，市场预期仍保持乐观

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a commentary on the November 2025 PMI data, titled "Manufacturing Sentiment Improves Slightly, Market Expectations Remain Optimistic" [1] - The analysts are Chen Xi and Wang Shuaizhong, with contact information and certificate numbers provided [2] Group 2: PMI Data Overview - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 pct month-on-month and down 1.1 pct year-on-year; the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 pct month-on-month; the composite PMI was 49.7%, down 0.3 pct month-on-month [2][3] Group 3: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing sentiment improved slightly due to export improvement, but it remained in the contraction range for eight consecutive months. New export orders rose 1.7 pct, on-hand orders rose 1.0 pct, and the production index rose 0.3 pct month-on-month [3] Group 4: Non-manufacturing PMI Analysis - The decline in the service PMI dragged the non-manufacturing PMI into the contraction range. In November, the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 pct month-on-month and 0.6 pct year-on-year, the first time in 2025 to fall into the contraction range [4] - New export orders rose, but new orders fell, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Policy measures for new consumption scenarios and promoting domestic demand and consumption may be in the works [4] Group 5: Structural Highlights - High-tech manufacturing remained in expansion, with a PMI of 50.1%. Equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and basic raw materials industries also had PMIs above the overall manufacturing level, despite some declines [5] - Price indices improved. The purchase price of major raw materials and the ex-factory price of manufacturing rose 1.1 pct and 0.7 pct respectively, and the input price and sales price of non-manufacturing rose 1.0 pct and 1.3 pct respectively [5] Group 6: Construction PMI - The construction PMI rose to 49.6%, up 0.5 pct month-on-month. The business activity expectation index was 57.9%, up 1.9 pct month-on-month, indicating improved confidence [6] Group 7: Market Expectations - Expectations for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing improved. The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation was 53.1%, up 0.3 pct, and the non-manufacturing business activity expectation was 56.2%, up 0.1 pct [6] Group 8: Bond Market View - Bond yields are expected to rise trendily as economic expectations are revised. For stock and bond allocation, the view is that economic growth may not decline significantly in H2 2025, structural issues like prices will improve, and the stock-bond allocation will continue to shift [7]