原油，弱势格局难改

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The current imbalance between supply and demand in the crude oil market is irreversible. High inventories and capital outflows continue to suppress market sentiment. Although OPEC+ has suspended production increases, it is difficult to change the medium - term oversupply trend. Geopolitical events can only trigger technical rebounds but cannot reverse the downward direction determined by fundamentals. The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the future [2][4]. Summary by Related Content Supply Situation - OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, but had already increased production by 2.2 million barrels per day before that, fully compensating for previous production cuts. Some member countries have an implementation rate of less than 80% for production increases, and there is still pressure to release remaining production capacity. The IEA has raised its forecast of global crude oil supply surplus for 6 consecutive months, expecting a daily supply surplus of nearly 4 million barrels in 2026 [2]. - Non - OPEC+ oil - producing countries are the core contributors to supply growth. The US crude oil production remains at a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day. Brazil, Norway and other countries have also seen record - high production. Russia can still maintain its export capacity through shadow fleets and non - US dollar settlements [2]. Demand Situation - Slow global economic recovery restricts energy consumption. The IEA expects the global crude oil demand growth rate to be only 0.8 - 1.2 million barrels per day in the next few years, significantly lower than the historical average. Demand in the European and American economies is particularly weak, and the Asian market cannot offset the overall decline in global demand [3]. - Weak demand growth has led to a rise in global oil inventories to a nearly 4 - year high. The price of WTI crude oil futures' forward contracts is higher than that of near - term contracts, and the global offshore oil storage capacity has continued to rise, with an increase of 92 million barrels in October and nearly 200 million barrels of crude oil stranded at sea [3]. Market Outlook - The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Key variables to focus on include OPEC+ policy adjustments, the safety of Russian export facilities, changes in global refinery profits, and the pace of economic recovery. In the short term, be vigilant against rebound opportunities caused by the escalation of geopolitical risks, but in the medium and long term, the weak pattern of the crude oil market is difficult to reverse fundamentally [4].