中辉农产品观点-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term Bullish and Volatile: Soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton [1][10][13] - Short - term Volatile: Rapeseed meal [1] - Potential to Stop Falling in the Short - term: Palm oil [1] - Short - term Bullish: Rapeseed oil [1] - Rebound with Pressure: Red dates [1] - Short - term Rebound: Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term bullish and volatile. Brazilian planting progress is slower than last year, and rainfall is expected to be lower than normal. However, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the Sino - US soybean purchase agreement limits the upside space of far - month contracts [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term volatile. The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the current port inventory is high. Far - month contracts can be considered for long positions at low prices due to the influence of soybean meal weather premium [1]. - Palm Oil: Potentially stop falling in the short - term. Although the supply - demand is weak in the short - term, the expectation of the减产 season and the postponement of the EU Zero - Deforestation Act implementation may lead to a price rebound. However, the probability of inventory accumulation in November is high [1]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term bullish and volatile. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and the optimistic sentiment of US biodiesel and the dry planting weather in Brazil support the price [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term bullish. Coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero inventory of rapeseed, and zero import in November, with a strong fundamental situation [1]. - Cotton: Cautiously bullish. The US cotton harvest is near the end, and the market is trading around the interest - rate cut expectation. Domestically, the cash flow of textile enterprises has improved, but there is still pressure from high inventory and hedging [1]. - Red Dates: Rebound with pressure. The new season's supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is in a loose pattern. It is recommended to maintain a bearish attitude in general [1]. - Live Pigs: Short - term rebound. The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the Q4 price is expected to fluctuate around the industry's average cash - flow cost. Short - term high - selling opportunities can be focused on for near - month contracts, and low - buying opportunities for far - month contracts after the pressure is released [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.1 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.97 million tons; and soybean meal inventory was 120.32 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.17 million tons [3]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3123.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan or 0.51% [2]. - Market Situation: The supply is in a loose pattern in the short - term, and the spot basis is under pressure. The one - time price may follow the market [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Inventory: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, both unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2423 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan or 1.18% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2519.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.9 yuan or 1.48% [4]. - Market Situation: The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the current port inventory is high. The far - month contracts can be considered for long positions at low prices due to the influence of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Inventory: As of November 21, 2025, the national key area's commercial inventory was 66.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 million tons [8]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8652 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day. The national average price was 8703 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan or 0.32% [7]. - Market Situation: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price may stop falling. However, the probability of inventory accumulation in November is high [9]. 3.4 Cotton - Supply: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily new cotton listing volume is 1.6 - 2.0 million tons. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87% [11]. - Demand: Downstream cotton spot trading has little change, and the spring - summer orders of cotton cloth have increased slightly. The export of textile and clothing in October was under pressure, but it is expected to improve slightly in the last two months of Q4 [12]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract CF2601 closed at 13765 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14936 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.27% [10]. 3.5 Red Dates - Supply: The new season's output is expected to be 50 - 60 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 518 tons [14]. - Demand: The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the procurement enthusiasm for new - season raw materials has decreased [14]. - Price: The purchase prices in different regions are relatively stable, such as 5.3 - 6.3 yuan/kg in Aksu [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - Supply: As of November 20, the group's overall slaughter progress was 65.67%. The supply pressure will be gradually released after December. The number of newborn piglets in October increased, and the number of breeding sows decreased [17]. - Demand: The downstream slaughter volume increased, and the cold - storage inventory was passively increased. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail catering consumption improved slightly [17]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract Ih2601 closed at 11495 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.09% [16].