Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Low-range operation [3] - Iron ore: Cautiously bearish [7] - Coke: Bullish [10] - Coking coal: Bullish [14] - Ferroalloys: Cautiously bullish [15] Core Views - Steel: The production and apparent demand of rebar decreased slightly month-on-month, with inventory also decreasing, but the absolute inventory level in Hangzhou is still high, and the fundamentals are weakly balanced. The production of hot-rolled coils increased slightly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory remained unchanged, reaching the highest level in the same period in recent years. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][5]. - Iron ore: The molten iron production decreased slightly month-on-month. With increasing steel mill maintenance, there is an expectation of further reduction in molten iron. Steel mills are destocking while port inventory is increasing. The shipment of foreign mines increased while the arrival volume decreased, and the static fundamentals weakened month-on-month. It is recommended to avoid going long for now [6][7]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price increases, coke enterprises' profits improved significantly, with most maintaining normal production and inventory accumulating. Steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Although molten iron production decreased month-on-month, it maintained some resilience, and some steel mills have maintenance plans. The expected price cut in the futures market has been gradually realized, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [9]. - Coking coal: Domestic raw coal production decreased month-on-month. Some coal mines in Shanxi stopped production collectively due to accidents, and there is still uncertainty in supply. It is expected that short-term production will remain at a low level. The Sino-Mongolian border port has resumed normal operation, recent Mongolian coal transactions have been light, and some domestic coal prices have risen slightly. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking intentions. In the short term, it is mainly to repair the basis, and the price may stop falling periodically, with the market expected to remain strong [13]. - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, the port ore price is relatively firm, the supply in the production area is declining, demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. A new round of steel tenders has not started yet, and attention should be paid to the entry rhythm of steel mills. For ferrosilicon, the industry's loss has deepened, but manufacturers in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are producing relatively stably, demand has increased slightly month-on-month, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. A new round of steel tenders has not started yet, and attention should be paid to the entry rhythm of steel mills. Both are expected to follow the rebound of the black series, but the upward trend lacks sustainability, and the valuation level is relatively low [17][18]. Summary by Variety Steel - Rebar - Price: The latest prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts are 3134, 3167, and 3206 respectively, with increases of 24, 50, and 52 [2]. - Basis: The latest basis of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts in Shanghai is 156, 123, and 84 respectively, with changes of 16, -10, and -12 [2]. - Spread: RB 10 - 01 is 72 with an increase of 28, RB 01 - 05 is -33 with a decrease of 26, and RB 05 - 10 is -39 with a decrease of 2 [2]. - Spot price: The latest spot prices in different regions range from 2990 to 3540 yuan/ton, with increases of 10 - 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Hot-rolled Coil - Price: The latest prices of hot-rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts are 3327, 3320, and 3333 respectively, with increases of 25, 32, and 43 [2]. - Basis: The latest basis of hot-rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts in Shanghai is -17, -10, and -23 respectively, with changes of -5, -12, and -23 [2]. - Spread: HC 10 - 01 is 6 with an increase of 18, HC 01 - 05 is 7 with a decrease of 7, and HC 05 - 10 is -13 with a decrease of 11 [2]. - Spot price: The latest spot prices in different regions range from 3240 to 3350 yuan/ton, with increases of 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2]. Iron Ore - There is no specific price data provided in the text, but it is mentioned that the static fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, with steel mills destocking and port inventory increasing, and the shipment of foreign mines increasing while the arrival volume decreasing [6]. Coke - Futures Market - The latest prices of coke 1, 5, and 9 contracts are 1619.5, 1770, and 1833.5 respectively, with increases of 45, 39, and 36 [8]. - The 01, 05, and 09 basis are -103, -254, and -317 respectively, with decreases of 45, 39, and 36 [8]. - J01 - 05 is -150.5 with an increase of 6, J05 - 09 is -63.5 with an increase of 3, and J09 - 01 is 214 with a decrease of 9 [8]. - Spot Market - The latest spot prices range from 1380 to 1620 yuan/ton, with decreases of 0 - 50 yuan/ton [8]. - Weekly Data - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 96%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons. The daily average coke production of sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants is 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 625.5 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons. The inventory available days are 11.3 days, an increase of 0.2 days. The port coke inventory is 187.4 tons, a decrease of 5.6 tons. The profit per ton of independent coking enterprises is 46 yuan, an increase of 27 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Futures Market - The latest prices of coking coal 1, 5, and 9 contracts are 1093, 1183, and 1245 respectively, with increases of 26, 31, and 24 [12]. - The 01, 05, and 09 basis are 252, 162, and 100 respectively, with decreases of 151, 156, and 149 [12]. - JM01 - 05 is -90 with a decrease of 5, JM05 - 09 is -62 with an increase of 7, and JM09 - 01 is 152 with a decrease of 2 [12]. - Spot Market - The latest spot prices range from 1190 to 1570 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 125 yuan/ton for Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal and no change for others [12]. - Weekly Data - The sample coal washing plant's operating rate is 61.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The daily average cleaned coal production of sample coal washing plants is 52.1 tons, with no change. The daily average coke production of sample coking plants is 50.4 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons. The coking coal inventory of sample coking plants is 860.9 tons, a decrease of 28.3 tons. The inventory available days are 12.8 days, a decrease of 0.6 days. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons. The inventory available days are 13 days, with no change. The total port coking coal inventory is 294.5 tons, an increase of 3 tons [12]. Ferroalloys - Ferromanganese - Futures Market - The latest prices of ferromanganese 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5724, 5770, and 5832 respectively, with increases of 112, 104, and 100 [16]. - The 01, 05, and 09 basis in Inner Mongolia are 106, 60, and -2 respectively, with decreases of 82, 74, and 70 [16]. - SM 09 - 01 is 108 with a decrease of 12, SM 01 - 05 is -46 with an increase of 8, and SM 05 - 09 is -62 [16]. - Spot Market - The latest spot prices range from 5510 to 5550 yuan/ton, with increases of 20 - 30 yuan/ton [16]. - Weekly Data - The ferromanganese enterprise operating rate is 38.09%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points. The output of 187 ferromanganese enterprises is 194,775 tons, a decrease of 2135 tons. The inventory of 63 ferromanganese enterprises is 368,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons [16]. - Ferrosilicon - Futures Market - The latest prices of ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5420, 5428, and 5490 respectively, with increases of 44, 82, and 80 [16]. - The 01, 05, and 09 basis in Ningxia are 130, 122, and 70 respectively, with decreases of 44, 82, and 66 [16]. - SF 09 - 01 is 70 with an increase of 22, SF 01 - 05 is -8 with a decrease of 38, and SF 05 - 09 is -62 [16]. - Spot Market - The latest spot prices range from 5200 to 5250 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton for ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia and no change for others [16]. - Weekly Data - The ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate is 33.41%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is 107,200 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is 71,830 tons, a decrease of 1220 tons [16].
中辉黑色观点-20251202
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-12-02 05:08