有色商品日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices were strong, hitting record highs. The US manufacturing PMI in November was below expectations, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates in December, which could affect global liquidity. Domestically, the estimated copper production in December is expected to increase, but demand has slowed due to high prices. With the Fed's December rate - cut fully priced in, there is uncertainty about whether the macro - environment can remain optimistic, and the price's continued rise is also uncertain [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. The expected environmental restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and复产 increased. High - price aluminum led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and inventory decreased. However, with the end of new energy vehicle purchase tax promotions and the completion of State Grid orders, the possibility of aluminum prices hitting new highs this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices fell slightly, and the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain was weak. In the new energy industry chain, raw materials were tight, but the output of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, one can consider buying at low prices, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The US manufacturing PMI was weak, and the BOJ's potential rate - hike may impact liquidity. Domestic production is expected to increase in December, but demand is sluggish. Inventory changes vary in different markets. The sustainability of price increases is uncertain [1]. - Aluminum: Futures prices trended strongly, while spot prices had mixed performance. The non - occurrence of environmental restrictions and new production affected supply expectations. Demand was released in the short - term, but future growth is limited [1][2]. - Nickel: Futures prices rose, and inventory pressure increased. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry was weak, and the new energy industry faced a decline in precursor output. Consider buying at low prices with caution [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On December 1, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 89,195 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan from November 28. LME inventory remained unchanged, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - Aluminum: On December 1, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE total inventory decreased [5]. - Nickel: On December 1, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - Zinc: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased [8]. - Tin: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 2.1%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [8]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [10][12][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][23]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metals research and have won many industry awards [52][53].