光大期货软商品日报-20251202

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, with rumors of Fed chair changes and large fluctuations in the US dollar index. The fundamentals have both long and short factors, and the short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile. In the domestic market, the recent strong trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures is driven by macro - level good news, stable cotton demand, and limited annual supply - demand pressure. Although there is a large short - term supply pressure, it will gradually weaken, and the cotton price center may move up slightly in December. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options on the 05 contract with a lower degree of out - of - the - money [2]. - For sugar, after the release of Thailand's lower - than - expected sugarcane purchase price, the futures price has been deeply adjusted. The northern hemisphere's production is not expected to change significantly, and the ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil provides support. The sugar price is expected to be in a volatile bottom - building phase. In the domestic market, with 39 sugar mills in Guangxi starting production, the supply has increased, and the spot price continues to be under pressure. The January contract is expected to be volatile, and the May contract will be under medium - term pressure [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: On Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.11% to 64.64 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.44% to 13,765 yuan per ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 1,675 lots to 546,900 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,570 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan per ton from the previous day [2]. - Sugar: Thailand announced the 2025/26 national unified sugarcane benchmark price. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi is 5,480 - 5,650 yuan per ton, with some prices down 30 - 100 yuan per ton; in Yunnan, it is 5,320 - 5,480 yuan per ton, down 10 - 20 yuan per ton; the mainstream price of processed sugar is 5,750 - 5,900 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 40 yuan with no change, the main contract basis is 1,171 yuan with no change. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,763 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan, and the national spot price is 14,936 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 70 yuan, down 6 yuan; the main contract basis is 160 yuan, down 35 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,470 yuan per ton with no change, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,565 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On December 1, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,403, 5 less than the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 2,147. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,763 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,950 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,982 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,122 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.1, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.2, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.7, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.3, up 0.1 [4]. - Sugar: On December 1, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,470 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,565 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and relevant price indices, with data sources from Wind and the research institute of Everbright Futures [7][15][17].