光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply is at a high level with the daily output of 19.9 million tons on December 1st, a daily decrease of 0.44 million tons. Demand shows regional differences, with sales - to - production ratios ranging from 70% - 95% to 120% - 150% in different areas. The start - up rate of gas - based enterprises and demand will continue to compete, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of gas - based enterprises, spot trading volume, and overall market sentiment [1]. - The soda ash market is expected to have a bottom - strengthening and wide - range fluctuation. The supply is gradually recovering with the industry's start - up rate reaching 80.65% on December 1st, a daily increase of 5 percentage points. Demand is mixed, with some downstream having low - price restocking needs, but the declining capacity of float glass is not conducive to rigid demand. The market needs more drivers for a trend change, and attention should be paid to production levels, product - output rhythm from Alxa, downstream purchasing rhythm, and related market trends [1]. - The glass market is expected to have a short - term bottom - strengthening and wide - range fluctuation. The supply is decreasing with the daily output dropping to 15.5 million tons on December 1st, and there are still plans for cold - repair of production lines. Demand remains positive but with a slightly weakened amplitude, and the sales - to - production ratio is in the range of 90% - 100%. Attention should be paid to the decline in supply, spot trading volume, and overall market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On December 1st, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 7,937, an increase of 350 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 762 [4]. - On December 1st, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.45 million tons compared to the same period last year. The start - up rate was 82.28%, a 0.67 - percentage - point increase compared to 81.61% in the same period last year [4]. - On December 1st, the spot prices of small - particle urea in different regions were: Shandong 1,690 yuan/ton (+20), Henan 1,680 yuan/ton (+20), Hebei 1,710 yuan/ton (+30), Anhui 1,680 yuan/ton (+30), Jiangsu 1,680 yuan/ton (+20), and Shanxi 1,550 yuan/ton (+20) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On December 1st, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 5,529, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,018. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On December 1st, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided, such as North China (light 1,250 yuan/ton, heavy 1,300 yuan/ton), Central China (light 1,150 yuan/ton, heavy 1,250 yuan/ton), etc. [6]. - On December 1st, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 80.65%, compared to 75.27% on the previous working day [7]. - On December 1st, the average price of the float glass market was 1,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton, and the daily output was 15.5 million tons, a daily decrease of 0.22 million tons [7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and between different commodities such as urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [9][10][18][19] Research Team Members Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [22]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [22]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties like cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant titles [22].