中辉有色观点-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding recommended [1] - Silver: Not recommended to chase high in the short - term, long - term long positions to hold [1] - Copper: Long - term holding recommended [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound, long - term sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Short - term stabilization [1] - Tin: Short - term relatively strong [1] - Aluminum: Short - term rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: Gold is supported by geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases in the long - term. Silver has a long - term supply - demand gap but is not suitable for short - term chasing due to high volatility and inventory changes [1][3] - Copper: Copper has reached a record high, not recommended to chase high blindly, but is bullish in the medium - to - long - term due to supply shortages and strategic value [1][6] - Zinc: Zinc shows a short - term rebound but is expected to have increased supply and decreased demand in the long - term, so sell on rallies [1][9] - Aluminum: Aluminum prices show a short - term rebound with ongoing inventory reduction [1][10] - Nickel: Nickel price rebound is under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [1][17] - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate maintains inventory reduction and is expected to be in a high - level shock, with opportunities to go long after the shock [1][20] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: COMEX silver has a short - term rally due to delivery squeeze, with a nearly 10% increase this week. Gold is affected by silver's movement [2] - Core Logic: Fed's potential rate - cut, weak US economic data, long - term supply - demand gap in silver, and long - term bullishness in gold due to global monetary environment and geopolitical factors. Short - term high volatility in silver makes it not suitable for chasing [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term focus on support levels (gold at 935, silver at 12600), long - term value - oriented positions to hold, short - term trading to be cautious [3] Copper - Market Review: Both Shanghai and LME copper prices have reached record highs, with speculative capital inflows [4] - Core Logic: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, production decline, inventory changes, and potential tariff expectations. Copper is a strategic resource and has substitution value [5][6] - Strategy Recommendation: Do not chase high blindly, gradually move stop - profit for long positions, beware of high - level decline. Bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term focus on price ranges (Shanghai copper: [88000, 91000] yuan/ton; LME copper: [10800, 11500] dollars/ton) [6] Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc shows a volatile and upward trend [7] - Core Logic: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decline, production and consumption are in a weak state in the short - term, inventory reduction in the off - season, and potential impact from environmental inspections [8] - Strategy Recommendation: Zinc shows a short - term rebound, sell on rallies in the long - term. Focus on price ranges (Shanghai zinc: [22500, 23000] yuan/ton; LME zinc: [3000, 3100] dollars/ton) [9] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, while alumina is in a weak position [10][11] - Core Logic: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction, inventory reduction in domestic aluminum ingots, and improvement in downstream demand. Alumina supply is in an over - supply situation [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term take profit and wait and see, pay attention to inventory changes. Main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [21000 - 22100] [13] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel price rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [14][15] - Core Logic: Potential production reduction in Indonesia, high inventory levels, and weak downstream stainless steel demand in the off - season [16] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on dips and wait and see, pay attention to stainless steel inventory changes. Main operating range for nickel is [116000 - 119000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2605 has a short - term rally and then falls back [18][19] - Core Logic: Continuous inventory reduction for 15 weeks, high terminal demand, and potential for production increase. Price is expected to be in a high - level shock [20] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on pullbacks in the range of [94000 - 98000] [21]