观点全追踪（12月第1期）：晨会精选-20251202

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the high dividend yield strategy in Hong Kong stocks is expected to experience significant calendar effects from December to mid-January, leading to higher absolute and excess returns during this period [3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The report identifies three main reasons for the strong calendar effect on Hong Kong dividends at year-end: 1. Institutional investors, such as public funds, may rebalance their assets to lock in annual returns by shifting from high-valuation growth stocks to high-dividend stocks [3]. 2. December to January is a peak period for insurance premiums, prompting some insurers to quickly build positions in high-dividend assets to match liability costs, creating a rigid buying demand [3]. 3. Year-end policy catalysts may emerge, which could stimulate the Hong Kong dividend market if supportive dividend policies are implemented or if growth stabilization policies fall short of expectations [3]. Group 2: Historical Performance - From 2014 to the present, the report notes that the win rate for absolute returns from December to mid-January has been 91%, with a win rate of 82% compared to the 300 total return index, the CSI dividend total return index, and the Hang Seng index total return [3]. - The current trading volume proportion in this segment is only 6.1%, indicating a relatively low level of crowding and suggesting a potential opportunity for reallocation [3].