西南期货早间评论-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Treasury Bonds: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - Stock Index Futures: Expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10] - Precious Metals: Expected to continue the upward trend, temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Rebar prices may remain weak in the medium term, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Look for opportunities to go short at high levels during rebounds [13] - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Look for opportunities to go short at high levels [15] - Coking Coal and Coke: Look for opportunities to go long at low levels [18] - Ferroalloys: Consider long positions at low levels after the spot loss widens [21] - Crude Oil: Focus on opportunities to go long [24] - Fuel Oil: Focus on opportunities to go long [27] - Polyolefins: Focus on opportunities to go long [29] - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to oscillate [32] - Natural Rubber: Consider opportunities to go long [34] - PVC: Focus on supply - side changes [38] - Urea: The downside space is limited [39] - Para - Xylene (PX): May oscillate and adjust in the short term, control positions and pay attention to crude oil and macro - policy changes [40] - PTA: May oscillate in the short term, be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [41] - Ethylene Glycol: May face pressure in the short term, pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42] - Short - Fiber: May oscillate following costs in the short term, control risks and pay attention to cost and macro - policy changes [44] - Bottle Chips: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, control risks [45] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [46] - Copper: May run strongly in the short term, beware of callback risks after hitting new highs [48][49] - Aluminum: In a phase of adjustment in the short term, the price has resilience in the medium - long term [50][51][52] - Zinc: Likely to continue the range - bound oscillation pattern [53][54] - Lead: Likely to run weakly [55][56] - Tin: May oscillate strongly [58] - Nickel: May oscillate [59] - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: Consider long positions in the low - cost support range [61] - Palm Oil: Consider going long on pullbacks [63] - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Consider a long - biased approach for rapeseed oil [66] - Cotton: The upside space is expected to be limited [69] - Sugar: May oscillate [74] - Apples: Expected to run strongly [75][76] - Pigs: Consider holding the remaining short positions temporarily [79] - Eggs: Consider temporary observation [81] - Corn and Starch: It is advisable to observe and wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers. Corn starch may follow the corn market [83][84] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year contract down 0.08% at 114.370 yuan, and others rising [5] - Policy and Macroeconomy: The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 1st, with a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results [8] - Policy and Market: The CSRC is promoting the pilot of commercial real - estate investment trust funds (REITs). The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up [8][9] Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose, with gold up 0.98% and silver up 4.33% [11] - Market Factors: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [13] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply capacity is in surplus, and inventory pressure is high. Hot - rolled coils have a similar situation [13] Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly [15] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Since October, iron ore supply has increased year - on - year, and demand has declined. Port inventory has exceeded last year's level [15] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly [17] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Coking coal supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Coke supply is stable, but demand may decline due to potential steel - mill production cuts [18] Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose [20] - Supply - Demand and Cost: Manganese ore supply has recovered, and the cost of ferroalloys is rising. Production is declining, and demand is weak, but the overall surplus is easing [20][21] Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward [22] - Market News: OPEC's suspension of production increase boosts market confidence. There are also news about Russia - US negotiations and the increase in US oil and gas rigs [22][23] Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward and stood above the 5 - day moving average [25] - Market Factors: The deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the slow progress of the US 28 - point plan are favorable for fuel oil prices [26] Polyolefins - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed certain price movements [28] - Market Analysis: The average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has increased. Different PP product industries show different trends [28] Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell 1.01% [30] - Supply - Demand and Market: Raw material prices are under pressure, supply is relatively loose, and demand from tire enterprises is weak [30][31] Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell [33] - Supply - Demand and Market: Supply is affected by weather and high overseas raw material prices. Demand is affected by enterprise maintenance, and inventory is slightly increasing [33] PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose 0.11% [35] - Supply - Demand and Cost: Supply is increasing, demand shows different trends in different industries, and costs are affected by raw material prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied [35] Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, urea futures fell 0.18% [38] - Supply - Demand and Cost: Supply is increasing, demand from downstream products shows different trends, and costs and profits are affected by coal prices [38] Para - Xylene (PX) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose 2.21% [40] - Supply - Demand and Market: PX supply is slightly decreasing, and the PXN spread is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to crude oil and macro - policy changes [40] PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, PTA2601 futures rose 1.93% [41] - Supply - Demand and Cost: Supply is increasing, demand from polyester is relatively stable, and processing fees are declining. It may oscillate in the short term [41] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose 0.28% [42] - Supply - Demand and Market: Supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand from downstream polyester is slightly decreasing [42] Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose 1.42% [43] - Supply - Demand and Market: Supply is at a relatively high level, demand changes little, and it may oscillate following costs [43][44] Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose 1.23% [45] - Supply - Demand and Market: Supply is at a certain level, export is increasing, and it may oscillate following the cost side [45] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose 0.56% [46] - Supply - Demand and Market: Supply is at a high level, consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and inventory is decreasing [46] Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose 0.62% [47] - Supply - Demand and Market: The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, and demand is affected by high prices and substitution. The price may be supported in the short term but is restricted by consumption [48] Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures rose [50] - Supply - Demand and Market: The supply of domestic bauxite is tight, but imports are increasing. Supply and demand are in a state of oversupply, and the price may adjust in the short term [50] Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures rose 0.98% [53] - Supply - Demand and Market: Zinc concentrate supply is tight, demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in a range [53] Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose 0.64% [55] - Supply - Demand and Market: The supply of lead concentrate is slightly easing, demand from the battery market is weak, and the price may run weakly [55] Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell 0.27% [57] - Supply - Demand and Market: Supply is tight, and demand shows some resilience. The price may oscillate strongly [57][58] Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose 0.26% [59] - Supply - Demand and Market: Nickel ore prices are stable, demand from the stainless - steel market is weak, and the price may oscillate [59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell 0.36%, and soybean oil futures rose 0.61% [60] - Supply - Demand and Market: Brazilian soybean planting is slightly slower, and domestic supply is relatively loose. Demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and demand for soybean oil is slightly improving [60][61] Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil futures fell [62] - Supply - Demand and Market: Indonesian production concerns are alleviated, and exports are declining. Domestic imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating [62] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Rapeseed futures fell [64] - Supply - Demand and Market: Attention is focused on the Canadian crop report. Domestic imports show different trends, and inventory is in a state of destocking [64][65] Cotton - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded, and overseas cotton futures fell slightly [67] - Supply - Demand and Market: The USDA has raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak [67][68] Sugar - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated, and overseas raw - sugar futures fell 3% [70] - Supply - Demand and Market: Brazilian sugar production has exceeded expectations, and domestic production and imports are increasing, putting pressure on sugar prices [70][73] Apples - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated [75] - Supply - Demand and Market: Inventory is decreasing, and new - season production and quality are declining, so the price is expected to be strong [75] Pigs - Market Performance: The national average pig price rose on the previous day [77] - Supply - Demand and Market: Supply is affected by enterprise sales and farmers' sentiment, and demand is affected by pickling. Attention should be paid to changes in sales and slaughter in December [77][78] Eggs - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas rose [80] - Supply - Demand and Market: Egg production is at a high level, and demand may increase seasonally. The price may be affected by supply and demand changes [80] Corn and Starch - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell [82] - Supply - Demand and Market: North - port corn arrivals are affected by transportation, and demand shows certain trends. Corn starch supply is increasing, and inventory is at a high level [82][83]