2025年11月金融数据预测：新增贷款或较低，社融增速回落

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts 2025 November new loans to be 450 billion yuan and social financing increment to be 2.15 trillion yuan; at end - Nov, M2 to reach 337.2 trillion, YoY +8.1%, new - caliber M1 YoY +5.6%, and social financing growth rate to be 8.4% [1] - November new loans may be less than the same period last year due to weak credit demand and banks' low motivation for credit issuance; future new loans may also be less year - on - year [2] - November M1 growth rate may decline, and M2 growth rate may slightly decline month - on - month [2] - Social financing growth rate may continue to decline, and it may drop to about 7.3% by the end of 2026 [2] - December bond market is promising, and the report is bullish on the bond market [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - Predicts 450 billion yuan in new loans in November 2025, with individual loans +5 billion, corporate loans +35 billion, and non - bank inter - bank loans +5 billion; individual short - term loans - 5 billion, individual long - term loans +10 billion; corporate short - term loans +0 billion, corporate long - term loans +15 billion, and bill financing +20 billion [2] M1 and M2 - Predicts the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of November to be 5.6%, with a slight month - on - month decline; the M2 growth rate at the end of November to be 8.1%, with a slight month - on - month decline [2] Social Financing - Predicts 2.15 trillion yuan in social financing increment in November 2025, less than the same period in 2024; the growth rate at the end of November to be 8.4%, with a 0.1 - point month - on - month decline [2] Bond Market - Due to factors such as slow growth in bond fund scale and banks' and insurers' increased influence on bond market pricing, and considering factors like banks' lower liability costs and insurers' asset - liability duration gap, the report is bullish on the December bond market [2]