风偏修复下科技板块领涨

Market Performance - Global markets rebounded last week, with MSCI Global up by 3.3%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 3.4%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 2.2% [7][12] - Among developed markets, the Nasdaq index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 4.9%, while the French CAC40 index had the weakest performance with a gain of 1.8% [7][12] - In emerging markets, the ChiNext index performed best with a gain of 4.5%, while the Indian Sensex30 index had the weakest performance with a gain of only 0.6% [7][12] Trading Sentiment - European stock trading volume increased, while trading volume in US and Asian stocks decreased, leading to a decline in stock index volatility [19] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved, with short-selling ratios decreasing to 16.3%, indicating a historical low position [19] - In contrast, the North American investment sentiment reached a historical high, with the NAAIM manager exposure index rising to 89.9% [19] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for technology sectors in Hong Kong and the US were revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast increased from 2096 to 2104 [63] - The S&P 500 Index's 2025 EPS forecast remained stable at 272, while the Eurozone STOXX50 Index's forecast remained unchanged at 333 [63][64] - In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Index's 2025 EPS forecast was slightly increased from 2279 to 2280, with the most significant upward revision in the warehousing and port transportation services sector [64] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment in Europe and the US declined, influenced by weakening manufacturing PMIs and geopolitical risks [7][19] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US decreased, while the index for China showed slight improvement due to positive policy signals [7][19] Fund Flows - The market anticipates a 0.83 rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with several officials supporting a December rate cut [48] - Global liquidity conditions improved, with significant inflows into US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea [59] - In Hong Kong, a total of 271 billion HKD flowed into the stock market, with notable inflows from the Stock Connect program [59][62]