Market Performance - Global markets rebounded last week, with MSCI Global up by 3.3%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 3.4%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 2.2 [8][14][30] - Among developed markets, the Nasdaq index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 4.9%, while the French CAC40 index had the weakest performance with a gain of 1.8% [8][14] - In emerging markets, the ChiNext index performed best with a gain of 4.5%, while the Indian Sensex30 index had the weakest performance with a gain of 0.6% [8][14] Trading Sentiment - European stock trading volume increased, while trading volume in US and Asian stocks decreased, leading to a decline in stock index volatility [20] - Investor sentiment in the Hong Kong market improved, while US investor sentiment remained at a historically high level [20][28] - The short-selling ratio in the Hong Kong market decreased to 16.3%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [20][27] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment in Europe and the US declined, influenced by weakening manufacturing PMI and geopolitical risks [8][68] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US decreased, while the index for China showed slight improvement due to positive policy signals [8][68] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for technology sectors in Hong Kong and the US were revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast increased from 2096 to 2104 [8][68] - The S&P 500 Index's 2025 EPS forecast remained stable at 272, while the Eurozone STOXX50 Index's forecast remained unchanged at 333 [8][68] Fund Flows - Significant inflows were observed in the Hong Kong market, with a total of 271 billion HKD flowing into stocks last week [63][67] - The market anticipates a 0.83 rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, reflecting a shift in monetary policy expectations [52][62]
全球股市立体投资策略周报 11 月第 4 期：风偏修复下科技板块领涨-20251202
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-02 05:59