11月债市回顾及12月展望：关注重磅会议，把握1.85%配置价值

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the bond market fluctuated more significantly during the policy window period, with the overall yield oscillating upward and the curve slightly steepening. The 10Y Treasury yield rose by 5BP, and the 1Y Treasury yield increased by 2BP. As of November 28, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5BP to 1.84%, and the 1-year Treasury yield went up 2BP to close at 1.4%, with the term spread widening by 1BP to 44BP [1][8]. - In December, attention should be paid to the statements of key central meetings, the subsequent operation scale of the central bank's restarted Treasury bond trading, the actual implementation of the public offering fee new regulations, and the marginal constraints of the "ceiling and floor" state of the 10-year bond on the current market pricing of 1.85%. The bond market is expected to be mainly volatile, and the allocation value at around 1.85% has reappeared. It is recommended to seize the current key position with high cost - effectiveness [4][5][66]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillated Upward, and the Yield Curve Slightly Steepened - In November, affected by factors such as capital - side fluctuations, the continued play of the stock - bond seesaw effect, and repeated policy expectations, the bond market's volatility intensified. The 10Y Treasury yield rose by 5BP, and the 1Y Treasury yield increased by 2BP. The term spread widened by 1BP to 44BP [1][8]. - Different maturities of the Treasury yield curve showed structural differentiation, with the ultra - short and medium - long - term yields rising more significantly. The implied tax rate of policy - bank bonds generally rebounded [9]. - Overseas, the market expected that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in December was 15.3%, while the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut rose to around 85%. As of November 28, compared with the end of October, the US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.02%, and the Sino - US yield spread inversion narrowed by 14BP to around 218BP [10]. - Throughout November, the bond market showed different trends in each week. The first week saw an oscillating upward trend in yields; the second week presented a narrow - range consolidation pattern; the third week showed a differentiation between short - and long - term yields; and the fourth week witnessed a steep upward shift in yields [16][19][22]. II. This Month's Outlook and Strategy (1) This Month's Bond Market Outlook: Pay Attention to the Statements of Key Central Meetings in December and Whether Institutions Will Make a Pre - emptive Move at the Year - End - Fundamentals: Continue to focus on the impact of inflation improvement, the resilience of exports under high - base effects, the improvement of PMI sentiment, the possible warming of real - estate supply and demand data, and the possible improvement of the shortfall in social financing [2][23]. - Supply Side: It is expected that the net supply of government bonds in December will be around 650 billion yuan, basically falling back to a relatively low level within the year. The use of the remaining quota will drive the continued issuance of special bonds [2][42]. - Funding Side: Although the scale of government bond issuance will fall to a low level within the year, the large - scale maturity of certificates of deposit next month may put pressure on the liquidity of the banking system. However, the central bank's attitude of care is clear, and it is expected that the funding side will be generally balanced and loose [2][46]. - Policy Side: Focus on the two major economic meetings in December. It is expected that there will be updates on policies related to broad - money, active fiscal policies, consumption, real estate, and debt resolution. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased [3][56]. - Institutional Behavior: In November, various institutions generally increased their holdings, with the allocation - oriented investors increasing their positions while the trading - oriented investors reducing their scale. In December, pay attention to the possible marginal redemptions of wealth management products after the formal implementation of the public offering sales fee new regulations, the trading games of public funds and other trading - oriented investors, the possible increase in holdings by wealth management products and rural commercial banks in the banking system, and the allocation layout of insurance - based allocation - oriented investors [3][59][60]. (2) Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market Will Be Mainly Volatile, and Seize the Allocation Cost - Effectiveness at the Short - Term Ceiling of 1.85% - Consider multiple aspects such as fundamentals, supply, funding, policies, and institutional behavior. In December, the bond market is expected to be mainly volatile. The allocation value at around 1.85% has reappeared, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity [66][67][68]. III. Important Economic Calendar for December The report lists important economic indicators to be announced in December and their market expected values, including foreign exchange reserves, export and import data, CPI, PPI, and other data [70].