高位承压，关注新仓单注册情况：有色金属周报-工业硅&多晶硅-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply is shrinking with the southwest region in the dry - season, and the demand from downstream industries like polysilicon and organic silicon is complex. The price is expected to range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, with supply - side factors being closely watched [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply is fluctuating, and the demand is weak due to factors such as reduced domestic tenders and overseas demand decline. The market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the re - registration of warehouse receipts [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Review - Industrial silicon futures' main contract closing price increased by 1.90% from 8,960 yuan/ton on 2025/11/21 to 9,130 yuan/ton on 2025/11/28. Polysilicon futures' main contract closing price rose by 5.74% from 53,360 yuan/ton to 56,425 yuan/ton. Most spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable, with only a few showing minor changes [9]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Silica: Downstream rigid - demand procurement continued, and the price of silica remained stable [14]. - Electricity Price: In the dry - season, the electricity price in the southwest region gradually increased, while in other regions, it showed different trends over time [20]. - Electrode: The electrode price remained stable. As of November 28, the average price of carbon electrodes was 7,200 yuan/ton, and that of graphite electrodes was 12,450 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [30]. - Silicon Coal and Petroleum Coke: The prices of silicon coal and petroleum coke were generally stable with minor fluctuations [32]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Production and Price - Profit: In October, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 was - 917 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 112 yuan/ton, and that of 421 was - 564 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 101 yuan/ton [37]. - Production: In the week of November 28, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased by 5, mainly in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Xinjiang. The total production showed a decreasing trend, and it was expected to be around 400,000 tons in December [38]. - Price: The spot price of industrial silicon was generally stable with minor fluctuations [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon Production and Price - Production: Last week, the polysilicon production was 24,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 tons. As of November 27, the inventory was 281,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. In December, the production was expected to be around 110,000 tons [69]. - Price: The futures price was volatile and strong, and the spot price was firm [70]. 3.5 Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component - Silicon Wafer: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the price dropped again. Some enterprises sold silicon wafers at low prices to recover funds, but it couldn't stimulate more demand. It was expected that silicon wafer factories would significantly reduce production in December [75]. - Battery Cell: The inventory pressure was not relieved, and the price was continuously under pressure. Battery factories tightened demand and carried out price - limited procurement [80]. - Component: Terminal procurement decreased, and the component inventory fluctuated slightly [83]. 3.6 Organic Silicon - Production: In November, the DMC production in China was 217,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, and the operating rate was 74.79%, a month - on - month increase of 5.08 percentage points. The supply increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down and overhauled devices [94]. - Price: The price of organic silicon increased. As of November 28, the average price of DMC was 13,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.76%; that of 107 glue was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; and that of silicone oil was 14,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Downstream rigid - demand procurement enthusiasm increased, but there was no large - scale inventory replenishment [101]. 3.7 Silicon Aluminum Alloy - Production: In the week of November 27, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points [110]. - Price: The price of the silicon aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly. As of November 28, the average price of ADC12 was 21,350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and that of A356 was 21,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.46% [113]. 3.8 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - Inventory: As of November 27, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 550,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 179,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,800 tons. As of November 28, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 6,596 lots, equivalent to 33,000 tons of spot [125]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The report provided the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of industrial silicon from January 2024 to October 2025, showing different supply - demand situations in different months [126].