瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated with an upward bias. The real - estate market declined slightly, but inventory continued to decrease. Overall, the supply and demand of rebar were both weak, but the rebound in the coking coal and coke futures prices supported steel prices, and the macro - economic outlook was positive. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising, but the red bars were shrinking. The reference view was to be bullish on the fluctuations, and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,169.00 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume of the RB main contract was 1,175,559 lots, up 127,790 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 46,437 lots, up 11,765 lots; the spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the SHFE was 65,741 tons, down 4,134 tons; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 153 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou (actual weight), it was 3,415 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,550.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 161.00 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines in Qingdao Port was 798.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - free) was 2,150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,990.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore in 45 ports was 152.0607 million tons, up 1.5519 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants was 449,500 tons, up 16,200 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke in sample steel mills was 6.2553 million tons, up 31,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1476 million tons, down 13,400 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.07%, down 1.10 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.96%, down 0.60 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar in sample steel mills was 2.0608 million tons, down 18,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills was 45.18%, down 0.41 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.4673 million tons, down 65,900 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8475 million tons, down 152,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 68.75%, down 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude - steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.475 million tons, up 41,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.28 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.52939 billion square meters, down 43.59 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, down 36.62 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 396.45 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production. Projects such as Xinfeng Steel (Egypt) and Jiangxi Chongxin New Materials started; projects such as Tianjin Decai Cold - rolling, Jiugang Hongyu New Materials, and Yunnan Yukun Iron and Steel were put into production. On December 1st, leading steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton reduction for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton reduction for dry - quenched coke [2]