Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-02 09:29Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The I2601 contract reduced positions and consolidated on Tuesday. Although the overall fundamentals of iron ore show a loose supply situation with port inventories turning from decreasing to increasing as molten iron output continues to decline, the positive macro - expectations and the firmness of spot prices still support the futures price. The view is to expect a volatile and bullish trend, with attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 800.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 358,611 lots, down 18,063 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 12,183 lots, up 430 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt of I was 1,300 lots, unchanged. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 103.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.23 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 866 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 859 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 761 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 58 yuan, down 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 107.35 US dollars/ton, up 1.35 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.07, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 874 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3.3232 billion tons, up 447,000 tons week - on - week. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.7658 billion tons, up 1.284 million tons week - on - week. Australia's shipping volume was 1.8205 billion tons, down 191,000 tons, with 1.5911 billion tons shipped to China, up 375,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 945,300 tons, up 147,500 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2.784 billion tons, down 1.555 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2.6993 billion tons, down 1.178 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.4632 billion tons, up 249,000 tons [2] - The 47 - port iron ore inventory was 15.90122 billion tons, up 1.6637 million tons week - on - week; the sample steel mill iron ore inventory was 8.94248 billion tons, down 587,500 tons week - on - week. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11.131 billion tons, down 5.02 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 399,900 tons, down 6,000 tons week - on - week; the operating rate of 266 mines was 63.41%, down 0.59 percentage points week - on - week. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 403,200 tons, down 7,000 tons week - on - week. The BDI index was 2,583, up 23 [2] - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 25.28 US dollars/ton, up 0.19 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 12.075 US dollars/ton, up 0.18 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.07%, down 1.10 percentage points week - on - week; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.96%, down 0.60 percentage points week - on - week. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7.2 billion tons, down 1.49 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.24%, down 0.49 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.90%, down 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.76%, down 1.67 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.53%, down 0.89 percentage points [2] Industry News - The China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium on domestic iron ore resource development for the "Iron Resource Development Plan". Vice - President Xia Nong emphasized that domestic mining enterprises should accelerate key iron ore projects [2] View Summary - The view is that the iron ore market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with attention to risk control. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis [2]