Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-02 09:27Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2200 in the short term. The port inventory has a potential to accumulate due to the expected high volume of incoming vessels, but the unloading time is uncertain as some vessels are affected by cargo quality. The demand side shows that the load of olefin enterprises in East China has increased, and the olefin industry's weekly average operating rate is expected to continue to rise [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2132 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is -100 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 978,569 lots, down 25,153 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -196,042 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 3,800 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2115 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1995 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price spread is 105 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is -17 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 247 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 317 dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton. The price spread between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is -70 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 4.89 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.03 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 93.75 tons, down 8.03 tons; at South China ports, it is 42.6 tons, down 3.55 tons. The methanol import profit is -19.78 yuan/ton, down 3.44 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 373,700 tons, up 15,000 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.09%, up 0.32% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.98%, up 0.97%; of dimethyl ether, it is 7.88%, up 2.19%; of acetic acid, it is 73.06%, up 3.47%; of MTBE, it is 69.97%. The operating rate of olefins is 89.93%, up 0.28%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is -786 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.87%, down 0.57%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.52%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol is 19.67%, down 0.24% [2] Industry News - As of November 26, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 37.37 tons, up 1.50 tons or 4.19% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, down 1.56 tons or 6.34%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 136.35 tons, down 11.58 tons from the previous period. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 91.01%, up 0.9% [2]