Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-02 09:24Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. This week, 4 enterprises' plants are planned to stop, and 4 stopped plants may resume production. Considering short - term malfunctions, production is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - Recently, the procurement of Northeast reserve demand was relatively concentrated, but the procurement volume may slow down after appropriate replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizers increased month - on - month, and enterprises are gradually scheduling winter - storage fertilizer production. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in the short term [3]. - With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing. Due to the continued advancement of reserve demand and the restocking of downstream terminals such as compound fertilizers, the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline. Considering the advancement of reserve demand and partial export shipping expectations, the short - term urea inventory still has a slight de - stocking trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1660 - 1700 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 219,302 lots, down 426 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 22,309 lots, down 1429 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts were 7887 lots, down 50 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1710 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 30 yuan, 20 yuan, 20 yuan, - 10 yuan, and 30 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports were 357.5 US dollars/ton and 397.5 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 7 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3]. 3.3. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 100,000 tons, with no change; the enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.71%, down 0.2%; the daily urea output was 202,400 tons, down 500 tons; the urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 5,871,270 tons, up 132,600 tons [3]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06%, up 2.45%; the operating rate of melamine was 60.8%, down 1.4%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers was 44 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,500 tons, down 500 tons [3]. 3.5. Industry News - As of November 26, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.10%. As of November 27, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, with no change. The overall port arrival rhythm was slow, and the port inventory may increase after the end of legal inspection. As of November 27, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.417 million tons, down 0.34 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.71%, down 0.20% [3]. 3.6. Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3].